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A Brownlow update
Could I be so bold as to suggest that there are realistically only three runners in the race for the Brownlow Medal?
The unofficial guidelines for the Brownlow are as follows:
1) The player is a well-known midfielder; and,
2) The player's club finishes in the top four for the home and away season.
Only twice have these guidelines been broken: once by Chris Judd in 2004 when his Eagles finished in eighth place; and once in 2003 when Mark Ricciuto’s Crows finished fifth for the season.
In 2010 there are three genuine contenders: Luke Hodge, Dane Swan, and Lenny Hayes.
What are the chances?
Luke Hodge:
Hawthorn currently sits in eighth place on the ladder, with no mathematical chance of them slipping into the top four by round twenty-two. They've won ten of their twenty games, with the potential to secure eleven by season's end. Therefore, in theory, it is assumed that Hodge has only the chance of securing substantive Brownlow votes in eleven of the twenty-two games. Last year, the Cats won eighteen of their twenty two games and Gary Ablett tallied thirty votes to win the brownlow. This poses quite a challenge for Hodge, who would nearly have to poll all three votes in every game that the Hawks have won.
Brownlow rating: 5/10
Dane Swan:
Last year Dane Swan had a breakthrough year, proving his magnetism for the ball around close contest. He was named the Herald Sun Player of the Year, All-Australian, and runner up for the MVP award. But this was not enough to secure him Brownlow Votes, so much so that he fell outside the top ten place getters.
This year, the Magpies have helped Swan's chances by no doubt finishing first on the ladder, with potentially eighteen wins. However, one must ask whether the tattoos that stain his upper body are a blemish that hinder any potential best and fairest recognition.
Brownlow rating: 7/10
Lenny Hayes
Lenny Hayes has proven himself the heartbeat of the St Kilda midfield. In the absence of Nick Riewoldt for much of the season, Hayes has proven himself the standout man to take his Saints into the grand final hunt for the second time in two years. Hard at the contest and a generous ball user, Hayes finished third in the 2009 count, below Ablett and Judd.
Although St Kilda's 2010 campaign unmatched the one launched in '09, they've still managed fourteen wins to date and an assured top four placing. In my mind, Hayes has a neck out lead over Swan and a broad stroke over Hodge.
Brownlow rating: 8/10
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Finals Edition
With two weeks until the finals get underway there seems to be only three teams in the competition that can confidently offer their hand for the flag: Collingwood, Geelong, and St Kilda.
While the Magpies have shown they're the best home and away side of 2010, their infamous finals’ history does little to convince me of their prospective dominance this time around.
The Cats have lacked something in '10, but there is a weighty expectation they will take the finals in their normal bustling stride.
The Saints are a mixed bag. Without Riewoldt they became unstoppable. With Riewoldt's return, they've taken time to adjust, with some structure issues in the beginning, but have since found a fragment of their 2009 form.
AFL Insider has been out of commission for a large portion of the second half of the season. Now, with the finals on the not-to-distant horizon, we are back to provide an informed and up to date coverage.
Over the next few weeks we will unpack the year that was 2010, discuss the Brownlow, and prepare for that day in September.
If your team has made the cut, good luck! If not, enjoy the next six weeks of footy in stress-free luxury.
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Wednesday Question: Brendan Fevola
The much anticipated clash between Carlton and the Brisbane Lions has lost its heat after Brendan Fevola was moved to the injury list late this week. The question: is he really injured, or is coach Michael Voss merely taking a back door opportunity to ground the form slumping star?
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Tuesday Predictions
Short Term Predictions
Riewoldt will return this weekend!
Hawthorn’s winning streak will come to an end
Long Term Predictions
West Coast to finish wooden spooners
Geelong’s window of success will close at the end of 2010
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Brownlow Medal: Luke Hodge
Coleman Medal: Jack Riewoldt
Top Four: 1. Geelong 2. St Kilda 3. Collingwood 4. Fremantle
Premiership Teams: Geelong v Collingwood
Premiership Winner: Geelong
Norm Smith Medal: Gary Ablett Jnr
Rising Star: Jack Trentgrove
All Australian Captain: Matthew Pavlich
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The Wednesday Question: the wooden spoon
John Worsfold went publicly recently, with the bold statement that his West Coast Eagles would not win the wooden spoon in 2010. In my mind, there are five teams in the hunt for the spoon: Richmond, Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, Port Adelaide. Who will win the accolade, and why?
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The return of St Nick!
Warning:
To the other fifteen teams in the AFL competition. This article contains content that may shock and shake you; it may tremble the tips of your top four grasping fingers; it may lead to acts of desperation and severe inner reflection. If you are currently experiencing the symptoms of finals confidence— excitement, jitters, joy, smile headaches— then avoid this prescription at all costs. Those of you who take no notice of this warning, or ignore its potent message, beware…
For Nick Riewoldt is returning!
He left the literal and figurative park in the round three clash between Collingwood and the Saints. He suffered a severe, three month debilitating, hamstring injury. He has backed into the darkness of recovery and rehab and we’ve heard little from him since. In the next few weeks, he will emerge from the unknown darkness and fall back into the sharp spotlight.
At the end of last season and the start of this one, Riewoldt was doted as the most indispensable player in the league. Captain of St Kilda, he is a murderous force at centre half forward and demands perfection from his own game and the games of the seventeen other men that structure around him.
He was an integral feature of St Kilda’s 2009 campaign, in which his Saints finished runner up to the legendary Geelong Cats. Most predict that without St Nick at the helm, the Saints have no chance of repeating or bettering their 2009 feat.
However, until now, they’ve managed quite impressively in his absence. With the genius of Stevie Milne, and the hardened presence of Lenny Hayes as stand-in captain, St Kilda has kept its top four position.
The question, quite unpredictably, has become whether coach Ross Lyon can reintroduce his endangered species back into the wild… without the entire ecosystem falling down around him.
To do it successfully, he will need to maintain his strong support for those who have stepped up in Riewoldt’s absence, to ensure the load does not merely burden itself back onto the skipper’s weary shoulders. Hayes, Milne, Goddard, Montagne. These are the names that need to be heard collectively above the often deafening praise for their broad shouldered leader.
If Nick needs any more incentive to return to the literal footy park, it will come with the revelation of his cousin, Jack. This younger cousin Riewoldt has kicked 26 goals in his last four outings and leads the Coleman Medal quite convincingly. For Nick to have any standing at the family Christmas barbecue this year he needs to return to what he did best…
… Dominating!
To the other fifteen teams in the AFL competition. This article contains content that may shock and shake you; it may tremble the tips of your top four grasping fingers; it may lead to acts of desperation and severe inner reflection. If you are currently experiencing the symptoms of finals confidence— excitement, jitters, joy, smile headaches— then avoid this prescription at all costs. Those of you who take no notice of this warning, or ignore its potent message, beware…
For Nick Riewoldt is returning!
He left the literal and figurative park in the round three clash between Collingwood and the Saints. He suffered a severe, three month debilitating, hamstring injury. He has backed into the darkness of recovery and rehab and we’ve heard little from him since. In the next few weeks, he will emerge from the unknown darkness and fall back into the sharp spotlight.
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201004/r546218_3204113.jpg
At the end of last season and the start of this one, Riewoldt was doted as the most indispensable player in the league. Captain of St Kilda, he is a murderous force at centre half forward and demands perfection from his own game and the games of the seventeen other men that structure around him.
He was an integral feature of St Kilda’s 2009 campaign, in which his Saints finished runner up to the legendary Geelong Cats. Most predict that without St Nick at the helm, the Saints have no chance of repeating or bettering their 2009 feat.
However, until now, they’ve managed quite impressively in his absence. With the genius of Stevie Milne, and the hardened presence of Lenny Hayes as stand-in captain, St Kilda has kept its top four position.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/common/imagedata/0,5001,6640394,00.jpg
The question, quite unpredictably, has become whether coach Ross Lyon can reintroduce his endangered species back into the wild… without the entire ecosystem falling down around him.
To do it successfully, he will need to maintain his strong support for those who have stepped up in Riewoldt’s absence, to ensure the load does not merely burden itself back onto the skipper’s weary shoulders. Hayes, Milne, Goddard, Montagne. These are the names that need to be heard collectively above the often deafening praise for their broad shouldered leader.
If Nick needs any more incentive to return to the literal footy park, it will come with the revelation of his cousin, Jack. This younger cousin Riewoldt has kicked 26 goals in his last four outings and leads the Coleman Medal quite convincingly. For Nick to have any standing at the family Christmas barbecue this year he needs to return to what he did best…
… Dominating!
http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/bUPZWPSX2p0/St Kilda Training Session/LS08niYXGK4/Nick Riewoldt
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Round 12, Week 1
(Game of the round: Carlton v Fremantle)
Round Twelve: Friday Night—Hawthorn v Essendon
Venue: MCG (Hawthorn Home)
Ladder Positions: Hawthorn (8th); Essendon (10th)
Last three games: Hawthorn (win/win/win); Essendon (lose/lose/win)
Favourite: Hawthorn
My Tip: Essendon by 10 points
Why?: Hawthorn aren’t Geelong!
Best on ground: Alwyn Davey
Round Twelve: Saturday Afternoon—Carlton v Fremantle
Venue: Etihad Stadium (Carlton Home)
Ladder Positions: Carlton (6th); Fremantle (4th)
Last three games: Carlton (lose/win/win); Fremantle (lose/lose/win)
Favourite: Carlton
My Tip: Fremantle by 33
Why?: Return of the Pav!
Best on ground: Matthew Pavlich
Round Twelve: Saturday Night—Brisbane v Richmond
Venue: Gabba (Brisbane Home)
Ladder Positions: Brisbane (11th); Richmond (16th)
Last three games: Brisbane (lose/lose/win); Richmond (win/lose/win)
Favourite: Brisbane
My Tip: Brisbane by 24
Why?: Home ground advantage!
Best on ground: Daniel Rich
Round Twelve: Sunday Afternoon— North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Venue: Etihad Stadium (North Melbourne Home)
Ladder Positions: North Melbourne (9th); Port Adelaide (12th)
Last three games: North Melbourne (win/win/lose); Port Adelaide (lose/lose/lose)
Favourite: North Melbourne
My Tip: Port Adelaide by 15
Why?: Pride!
Best on ground: Dean Brogan
Round Twelve: Sunday Afternoon—West Coast v Western Bulldogs
Venue: Subiaco (West Coast Home)
Ladder Positions: Western Bulldogs (5th); West Coast (14th)
Last three games: Western Bulldogs (win/lose/lose); West Coast (lose/lose/lose)
Favourite: Western Bulldogs
My Tip: Western Bulldogs by 40
Why?: Top four!
Best on ground: Adam Cooney
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The Wednesday Question: Drawn Games
Monday's Queen's Day Birthday clash saw Melbourne and Collingwood record the first draw for the season. It sparked the perennial question: should draws remain a reality in the home and away season, and the finals series; or, should the AFL install a time-on policy where play continues for another 5-10 minutes?
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Tuesday Predictions
Short Term Predictions
St Kilda to upset Geelong
Jack Riewoldt to kick 4 against the lions
Long Term Predictions
Fremantle to end season out of top four
Karmichael Hunt to leave AFL after contract expires
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Brownlow Medal: Luke Hodge
Coleman Medal: Barry Hall
Top Four: 1. Geelong 2. St Kilda 3. Collingwood 4. Bulldogs
Premiership Teams: Geelong v Collingwood
Premiership Winner: Geelong
Norm Smith Medal: Joel Selwood
Rising Star: Nathan Fyfe
All Australian Captain: Matthew Pavlich
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