A Brownlow update
Could I be so bold as to suggest that there are realistically only three runners in the race for the Brownlow Medal?
The unofficial guidelines for the Brownlow are as follows:
1) The player is a well-known midfielder; and,
2) The player's club finishes in the top four for the home and away season.
Only twice have these guidelines been broken: once by Chris Judd in 2004 when his Eagles finished in eighth place; and once in 2003 when Mark Ricciuto’s Crows finished fifth for the season.
In 2010 there are three genuine contenders: Luke Hodge, Dane Swan, and Lenny Hayes.
What are the chances?
Luke Hodge:
Hawthorn currently sits in eighth place on the ladder, with no mathematical chance of them slipping into the top four by round twenty-two. They've won ten of their twenty games, with the potential to secure eleven by season's end. Therefore, in theory, it is assumed that Hodge has only the chance of securing substantive Brownlow votes in eleven of the twenty-two games. Last year, the Cats won eighteen of their twenty two games and Gary Ablett tallied thirty votes to win the brownlow. This poses quite a challenge for Hodge, who would nearly have to poll all three votes in every game that the Hawks have won.
Brownlow rating: 5/10
Dane Swan:
Last year Dane Swan had a breakthrough year, proving his magnetism for the ball around close contest. He was named the Herald Sun Player of the Year, All-Australian, and runner up for the MVP award. But this was not enough to secure him Brownlow Votes, so much so that he fell outside the top ten place getters.
This year, the Magpies have helped Swan's chances by no doubt finishing first on the ladder, with potentially eighteen wins. However, one must ask whether the tattoos that stain his upper body are a blemish that hinder any potential best and fairest recognition.
Brownlow rating: 7/10
Lenny Hayes
Lenny Hayes has proven himself the heartbeat of the St Kilda midfield. In the absence of Nick Riewoldt for much of the season, Hayes has proven himself the standout man to take his Saints into the grand final hunt for the second time in two years. Hard at the contest and a generous ball user, Hayes finished third in the 2009 count, below Ablett and Judd.
Although St Kilda's 2010 campaign unmatched the one launched in '09, they've still managed fourteen wins to date and an assured top four placing. In my mind, Hayes has a neck out lead over Swan and a broad stroke over Hodge.
Brownlow rating: 8/10
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