Round 1 AFL Preview
Melbourne vs St Kilda
The Tip: Melbourne by 17 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Cameron Bruce
Chance For An Upset: There is always the stat about teams winning their first game with a new coach, although that often applies to teams that fire a coach in the middle of the season. The Saints have some big stars back so they are a chance for the win.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White jumps over everyone and also runs away from the slower Saints ruckmen and scores a couple of goals.
They lose if...they forget how good Hayes is.
The Good News: Moloney is back.
The Bad News: Rivers isn't ready yet.
St Kilda
They win if....M Clarke knows where his onabllers are, or his onballers know where Clarke will tap the ball.
They lose if...Nobody can step up and battle big Neitz.
The Good News: Hayes, Koschitzke and Maguire are playing.
The Bad News: Riewoldt could have been the difference.
Kangaroos vs Collingwood
The Tip: Collingwood by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Anthony Rocca
Chance For An Upset: While the Kangaroos look a bit small, it could give them the chance to run and in preseason when the Kangaroos got going they were hard to stop.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie dominates the back line and they get some unexpected goals from someone like Hansen.
They lose if...they don't contain Josh Fraser, in the ruck and in the forward line.
The Good News: Matthew Campbell, just elevated from the rookie list, gives them a quick forward who can kick goals.
The Bad News: They are without Thompson, Harding and Rocca and they kicked most of their goals in 2006.
Collingwood
They win if....the Kangaroos are not able to combat the height of Fraser, Rocca and Cloke.
They lose if...they allow space to Grant and Harvey and the two veterans score goals.
The Good News: Fraser has extra help this season and will hurt teams when he goes forward.
The Bad News: With Buckley and Didak playing this could have been a guaranteed win.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide
The Tip: Fremantle by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Paul Hasleby
Chance For An Upset: The Power are one of the teams that can compete against Sandilands in the ruck, they also have the speed which will challenge the Dockers' midfield pace.
Fremantle
They win if....Pavlich and Tarrant control the air.
They lose if...they allow Lade to go forward and kick goals.
The Good News: They are favourites for the 2007 season.
The Bad News: Michael Johnson and Jeff Farmer would have been useful inclusions if not suspended.
Port Adelaide
They win if....their quick midfielders are able to exploit the Dockers' slower players.
They lose if...they don't have someone stand up and kick 4 or 5 goals.
The Good News: They had a really good preseason and discovered some players who are ready to be stars.
The Bad News: Tredrea is out.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn
The Tip: Brisbane by 7 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Roe
Chance For An Upset: The Hawks match up very well with the Lions, they have the ruck combo to battle the Lions' big guys and while the midfield for Hawthorn is younger it has enough talent to compete against Black and Power.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks goals.
They lose if...Brown is contained and no other Lions step up and kick goals now that Bradshaw is out.
The Good News: They got to the NAB Cup Grand Final, and now have a returning Nigel Lappin to bolster their team.
The Bad News: Bradshaw will be missed.
Hawthorn
They win if....one of Franklin, Roughead or Boyle can kick a goal a quarter.
They lose if...they don't stop Black and Power.
The Good News: The Hawks are playing better than they have in a long time.
The Bad News: Suspensions mean that Crawford and Brown miss this game.
Sydney vs West Coast
The Tip: Sydney by 29 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nic Fosdike
Chance For An Upset: West Coast won last time they played, so of course they can win. While the Eagles are without several key players, and the Swans now have Everitt, the Eagles can win if they find a few more goals.
Sydney
They win if....they slow down Judd.
They lose if...big Lynch dominates against the smaller Swans' defenders.
The Good News: Everitt fixes a lot of their problems.
The Bad News: The extra run of Schneider would have been an asset.
West Coast
They win if....Cox gives his team first use of the ball.
They lose if...they don't have the size if the Swans have Hall, O'Loughlin, Everitt and Vogels up forward.
The Good News: Most of their 2006 AFL Premiership side is playing in this game.
The Bad News: The players from the 2006 AFL Premiership side who are not available for this game are very important.
Adelaide vs Essendon
The Tip: Adelaide by 11 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Doughty
Chance For An Upset: Essendon have a lot of tall forwards and the Crows may not be able to cover all of them. This is a much better team than Essendon had last season and they should not be underestimated.
Adelaide
They win if....they get goals from Bock, Perrie and Welsh.
They lose if...players don't get physical as the Crows will miss the immense presence of Ricciuto.
The Good News: Ben Hudson returns to action after a long injury absence.
The Bad News: The Crows have a very long injured list.
Essendon
They win if....they get enough of the ball to their tall forwards.
They lose if...they don't stop the run that the Crows' defenders provide.
The Good News: The team is loaded with veteran stars, including Mal Michael who plays his first game for Essendon.
The Bad News: Jason Johnson won't be available for this game.
Western Bulldogs vs Geelong
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 21 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Daniel Cross
Chance For An Upset: There isn't a lot separating these two teams. If Ottens is in good form the Bulldogs don't have anyone at his size to stop him.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they outrun the Cats.
They lose if...Ottens and Mooney are able to go one-on-one with their defenders.
The Good News: Akermanis, a great new addition. The return of Darcy and Murphy is also very important.
The Bad News: Grant and Harris are out, so they are a bit short at the back.
Geelong
They win if....players like Wojcinski and Byrnes can beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
They lose if...they struggle in the ruck without King.
The Good News: Selwood should debut.
The Bad News: The Cats, and their coach, need to start the year off well, but they play one of the best teams in their first match.
Richmond vs Carlton
The Tip: Richmond by 5 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Deledio
Chance For An Upset: After their NAB Cup run the Blues are favourites for this game, whoever wins it could be close.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson explodes and kicks a big bag of goals.
They lose if...they don't get a good game from their full back.
The Good News: Polak gives them some more size, their midfield is a bit older than much of Carlton's onball group, as player like Deledio and Tamlbing have a few more years than Murphy and Gibbs.
The Bad News: Simmonds could have dominated against the Carlton ruckmen, he is out injured. Brown was named but won't be available because of his leg.
Carlton
They win if....Waite can cut off the supply to Richardson.
They lose if...Pattison, and maybe Knobel, can exploit a height advantage in the ruck.
The Good News: They have a preseason trophy, lots of money now and top draft picks Gibbs and Murphy.
The Bad News: Ackland and Cloke are short, for ruckmen.
The Tip: Melbourne by 17 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Cameron Bruce
Chance For An Upset: There is always the stat about teams winning their first game with a new coach, although that often applies to teams that fire a coach in the middle of the season. The Saints have some big stars back so they are a chance for the win.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White jumps over everyone and also runs away from the slower Saints ruckmen and scores a couple of goals.
They lose if...they forget how good Hayes is.
The Good News: Moloney is back.
The Bad News: Rivers isn't ready yet.
St Kilda
They win if....M Clarke knows where his onabllers are, or his onballers know where Clarke will tap the ball.
They lose if...Nobody can step up and battle big Neitz.
The Good News: Hayes, Koschitzke and Maguire are playing.
The Bad News: Riewoldt could have been the difference.
Kangaroos vs Collingwood
The Tip: Collingwood by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Anthony Rocca
Chance For An Upset: While the Kangaroos look a bit small, it could give them the chance to run and in preseason when the Kangaroos got going they were hard to stop.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie dominates the back line and they get some unexpected goals from someone like Hansen.
They lose if...they don't contain Josh Fraser, in the ruck and in the forward line.
The Good News: Matthew Campbell, just elevated from the rookie list, gives them a quick forward who can kick goals.
The Bad News: They are without Thompson, Harding and Rocca and they kicked most of their goals in 2006.
Collingwood
They win if....the Kangaroos are not able to combat the height of Fraser, Rocca and Cloke.
They lose if...they allow space to Grant and Harvey and the two veterans score goals.
The Good News: Fraser has extra help this season and will hurt teams when he goes forward.
The Bad News: With Buckley and Didak playing this could have been a guaranteed win.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide
The Tip: Fremantle by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Paul Hasleby
Chance For An Upset: The Power are one of the teams that can compete against Sandilands in the ruck, they also have the speed which will challenge the Dockers' midfield pace.
Fremantle
They win if....Pavlich and Tarrant control the air.
They lose if...they allow Lade to go forward and kick goals.
The Good News: They are favourites for the 2007 season.
The Bad News: Michael Johnson and Jeff Farmer would have been useful inclusions if not suspended.
Port Adelaide
They win if....their quick midfielders are able to exploit the Dockers' slower players.
They lose if...they don't have someone stand up and kick 4 or 5 goals.
The Good News: They had a really good preseason and discovered some players who are ready to be stars.
The Bad News: Tredrea is out.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn
The Tip: Brisbane by 7 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Roe
Chance For An Upset: The Hawks match up very well with the Lions, they have the ruck combo to battle the Lions' big guys and while the midfield for Hawthorn is younger it has enough talent to compete against Black and Power.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks goals.
They lose if...Brown is contained and no other Lions step up and kick goals now that Bradshaw is out.
The Good News: They got to the NAB Cup Grand Final, and now have a returning Nigel Lappin to bolster their team.
The Bad News: Bradshaw will be missed.
Hawthorn
They win if....one of Franklin, Roughead or Boyle can kick a goal a quarter.
They lose if...they don't stop Black and Power.
The Good News: The Hawks are playing better than they have in a long time.
The Bad News: Suspensions mean that Crawford and Brown miss this game.
Sydney vs West Coast
The Tip: Sydney by 29 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nic Fosdike
Chance For An Upset: West Coast won last time they played, so of course they can win. While the Eagles are without several key players, and the Swans now have Everitt, the Eagles can win if they find a few more goals.
Sydney
They win if....they slow down Judd.
They lose if...big Lynch dominates against the smaller Swans' defenders.
The Good News: Everitt fixes a lot of their problems.
The Bad News: The extra run of Schneider would have been an asset.
West Coast
They win if....Cox gives his team first use of the ball.
They lose if...they don't have the size if the Swans have Hall, O'Loughlin, Everitt and Vogels up forward.
The Good News: Most of their 2006 AFL Premiership side is playing in this game.
The Bad News: The players from the 2006 AFL Premiership side who are not available for this game are very important.
Adelaide vs Essendon
The Tip: Adelaide by 11 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Doughty
Chance For An Upset: Essendon have a lot of tall forwards and the Crows may not be able to cover all of them. This is a much better team than Essendon had last season and they should not be underestimated.
Adelaide
They win if....they get goals from Bock, Perrie and Welsh.
They lose if...players don't get physical as the Crows will miss the immense presence of Ricciuto.
The Good News: Ben Hudson returns to action after a long injury absence.
The Bad News: The Crows have a very long injured list.
Essendon
They win if....they get enough of the ball to their tall forwards.
They lose if...they don't stop the run that the Crows' defenders provide.
The Good News: The team is loaded with veteran stars, including Mal Michael who plays his first game for Essendon.
The Bad News: Jason Johnson won't be available for this game.
Western Bulldogs vs Geelong
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 21 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Daniel Cross
Chance For An Upset: There isn't a lot separating these two teams. If Ottens is in good form the Bulldogs don't have anyone at his size to stop him.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they outrun the Cats.
They lose if...Ottens and Mooney are able to go one-on-one with their defenders.
The Good News: Akermanis, a great new addition. The return of Darcy and Murphy is also very important.
The Bad News: Grant and Harris are out, so they are a bit short at the back.
Geelong
They win if....players like Wojcinski and Byrnes can beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
They lose if...they struggle in the ruck without King.
The Good News: Selwood should debut.
The Bad News: The Cats, and their coach, need to start the year off well, but they play one of the best teams in their first match.
Richmond vs Carlton
The Tip: Richmond by 5 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Deledio
Chance For An Upset: After their NAB Cup run the Blues are favourites for this game, whoever wins it could be close.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson explodes and kicks a big bag of goals.
They lose if...they don't get a good game from their full back.
The Good News: Polak gives them some more size, their midfield is a bit older than much of Carlton's onball group, as player like Deledio and Tamlbing have a few more years than Murphy and Gibbs.
The Bad News: Simmonds could have dominated against the Carlton ruckmen, he is out injured. Brown was named but won't be available because of his leg.
Carlton
They win if....Waite can cut off the supply to Richardson.
They lose if...Pattison, and maybe Knobel, can exploit a height advantage in the ruck.
The Good News: They have a preseason trophy, lots of money now and top draft picks Gibbs and Murphy.
The Bad News: Ackland and Cloke are short, for ruckmen.
With Darcy playing, it might allow Minson to spend a lot of time around half back which should help against big Ottens and Mooney. Wynd used to get in front of Lockett and other forwards and Minson will need to play a similar role to help Wight.
Thank you both for your comments.