Leuenberger Could Be A Draft Slider
It is nearly a coin-flip for Carlton as they decide between Gibbs and Leuenberger. If the priority picks were ahead of the first round, instead of after it, there would not be a problem. But that is not the case and they can only have one of them. If they miss out on Leuenberger it could be the start of a draft day slide. Collingwood fans are hoping that happens.
Carlton take Gibbs and then it is Essendon's selection. If Essendon only had Hille and young Ryder they could be very tempted, but they have also signed Laycock to a new deal. It did look like Laycock might go to a new team but he signed before the trading period and he should play a lot next season. Sheedy could do it, as the Bombers have scouted Leuenberger in Western Australia, but they have a greater need for a key position backman and they have several options at pick 2 to cover that. Essendon went very tall in the first round of 3 of the last 4 AFL drafts, with Ryder, Bradley and Laycock. They may not make it 4 out of 5 drafts.
The Kangaroos took McIntosh in the first round in 2002 and Hale was a first round selection in 2001. They also have young Moran who was a Rising Star nominee last season. The Kangaroos need immediate help. Leuenberger will need a year or two one while a player like Selwood could contribute next season. The Kangaroos' coach can't afford to draft another young tall who could take several years to develop as they need to win now.
Brisbane went with Wood a couple of drafts ago. He and Charman should be a solid ruck combination. While the Lions will lose Keating, and possibly McDonald, they also need to find a replacement for Leppitsch and Michael in the backline. Like the Bombers, they might be interested in Leuenberger but will be more eager to grab one of the key position prospects.
It is a great idea to stockpile ruckmen, the Power do this and with their depth they won a Grand Final even with Primus out injured. Lade and Brogan still have a few years left and the Power do have some other ruck prospects. But Deluca might be better as a forward if he makes it at the AFL level, Willits has looked more promising than Deluca but also might be better in a key position. Port Adelaide are more likely to take Leuenberger than Essendon, the Kangaroos or Brisbane.
If Leuenberger slides to the Power's pick it will be a big draft story, but if the Power don't take him it will be even bigger as the slide could continue for another couple of picks. Hawthorn are loaded with young stars and in the ruck they have Robert Campbell who is 24 years old and Max Bailey. Bailey was pick 18 last year, he is 206cm so he is even taller than Leuenberger. The Hawks will be playing games in Tasmania and there will be a few Tasmanian players available at their pick that will interest them, and also fill a draft need.
Ottens and King combined for 533 hitouts last season, Mark Blake added another 97. The Cats do not need another ruckman. They also drafted Trent West last year. A fast midfielder, or maybe another tall defender, is what Geelong will take in round 1. If Leuenberger is drafted by Geelong it will be a big shock.
The only thing bigger than Geelong taking him would be Collingwood not drafting him at number 8. They have Fraser, and not much else there. Leuenberger would be taken by Collingwood at pick 8, as the Saints would select him at pick 9.
Of the top 7 teams in the draft order, only Carlton desperately need a ruckman. But the pressure to take Gibbs, who will provide more immediate benefits, and the availability of other ruckmen, at picks 17 and 19 and possibly the preseason draft too, will mean that Carlton may not call out Leuenberger's name. It will then take a brave team to overlook instant help in an area of need to instead take Leuenberger as an investment for the future. If Collingwood does get Leuenberger they will have ended up trading Tarrant for Medhurst and the ruckman who was a potential number 1 pick.
There have been much bigger slides by ruckmen in AFL drafts. Peter Street, Dean Cox and Aaron Sandilands slid all the way through previous national drafts, although Cox and Sandilands were not well known then. Leuenberger won't match that, but a possible top overall pick lasting until number 8 would qualify as a draft day slide.
Draft Pick, Team, 2006 team hitouts per game and AFL rank
1: Carlton. 26.6, 12th
2: Essendon. 24.0, 14th
3: Kangaroos. 24.5, 13th
4: Brisbane. 32.2, 4th
5: Port Adelaide. 30.8, 7th
6: Hawthorn. 33.0, 3rd
7: Geelong. 31.5, 5th
8: Collingwood. 22.0, 16th
9: St. Kilda. 23.5, 15th
Carlton take Gibbs and then it is Essendon's selection. If Essendon only had Hille and young Ryder they could be very tempted, but they have also signed Laycock to a new deal. It did look like Laycock might go to a new team but he signed before the trading period and he should play a lot next season. Sheedy could do it, as the Bombers have scouted Leuenberger in Western Australia, but they have a greater need for a key position backman and they have several options at pick 2 to cover that. Essendon went very tall in the first round of 3 of the last 4 AFL drafts, with Ryder, Bradley and Laycock. They may not make it 4 out of 5 drafts.
The Kangaroos took McIntosh in the first round in 2002 and Hale was a first round selection in 2001. They also have young Moran who was a Rising Star nominee last season. The Kangaroos need immediate help. Leuenberger will need a year or two one while a player like Selwood could contribute next season. The Kangaroos' coach can't afford to draft another young tall who could take several years to develop as they need to win now.
Brisbane went with Wood a couple of drafts ago. He and Charman should be a solid ruck combination. While the Lions will lose Keating, and possibly McDonald, they also need to find a replacement for Leppitsch and Michael in the backline. Like the Bombers, they might be interested in Leuenberger but will be more eager to grab one of the key position prospects.
It is a great idea to stockpile ruckmen, the Power do this and with their depth they won a Grand Final even with Primus out injured. Lade and Brogan still have a few years left and the Power do have some other ruck prospects. But Deluca might be better as a forward if he makes it at the AFL level, Willits has looked more promising than Deluca but also might be better in a key position. Port Adelaide are more likely to take Leuenberger than Essendon, the Kangaroos or Brisbane.
If Leuenberger slides to the Power's pick it will be a big draft story, but if the Power don't take him it will be even bigger as the slide could continue for another couple of picks. Hawthorn are loaded with young stars and in the ruck they have Robert Campbell who is 24 years old and Max Bailey. Bailey was pick 18 last year, he is 206cm so he is even taller than Leuenberger. The Hawks will be playing games in Tasmania and there will be a few Tasmanian players available at their pick that will interest them, and also fill a draft need.
Ottens and King combined for 533 hitouts last season, Mark Blake added another 97. The Cats do not need another ruckman. They also drafted Trent West last year. A fast midfielder, or maybe another tall defender, is what Geelong will take in round 1. If Leuenberger is drafted by Geelong it will be a big shock.
The only thing bigger than Geelong taking him would be Collingwood not drafting him at number 8. They have Fraser, and not much else there. Leuenberger would be taken by Collingwood at pick 8, as the Saints would select him at pick 9.
Of the top 7 teams in the draft order, only Carlton desperately need a ruckman. But the pressure to take Gibbs, who will provide more immediate benefits, and the availability of other ruckmen, at picks 17 and 19 and possibly the preseason draft too, will mean that Carlton may not call out Leuenberger's name. It will then take a brave team to overlook instant help in an area of need to instead take Leuenberger as an investment for the future. If Collingwood does get Leuenberger they will have ended up trading Tarrant for Medhurst and the ruckman who was a potential number 1 pick.
There have been much bigger slides by ruckmen in AFL drafts. Peter Street, Dean Cox and Aaron Sandilands slid all the way through previous national drafts, although Cox and Sandilands were not well known then. Leuenberger won't match that, but a possible top overall pick lasting until number 8 would qualify as a draft day slide.
Draft Pick, Team, 2006 team hitouts per game and AFL rank
1: Carlton. 26.6, 12th
2: Essendon. 24.0, 14th
3: Kangaroos. 24.5, 13th
4: Brisbane. 32.2, 4th
5: Port Adelaide. 30.8, 7th
6: Hawthorn. 33.0, 3rd
7: Geelong. 31.5, 5th
8: Collingwood. 22.0, 16th
9: St. Kilda. 23.5, 15th
