Draft Efficiency - Using the 2006 AFL Delistings
With the 2006 AFL National Draft fast approaching, here is a list that might show which teams are more likely to miss with one of their early picks. Taking the players that clubs just delisted, and their pick number in the AFL National Draft, an average can be worked out. Players that retired or were traded are not considered, as well as the players who were delisted but were put onto lists with a rookie, preseason or other type of pick.
So a number over 50 or so for the list below indicates a team mainly delisted players that were taken in later rounds, so they must have gotten value with early picks. While teams that had to delist players that they previously took with first or second round picks are ranked around the 20s for their average number.
Will update and expand these numbers soon by adding the delistings from 2005. That will give a lot more information and accurate results with more players and picks to average out. Consider this post a preview, and when the sample size is increased the draft efficiency results will be clearer.
But the numbers for 2006 do show a few trends which make sense, like Carlton and Hawthorn both went through a bad patch with the drafts and identifying players. Although when the 2005 numbers are added those two teams won't look as bad as they did not delist a top 10 drafted player, like Livingston or Brennan, that year.
Down the other end of the list, the Kangaroos don't delist a lot of players that they actually drafted themselves in the AFL National Drafts. But while they may have been drafting useful players, in recent seasons they have been trading away a lot of their early picks instead of using them. Fremantle have been much better drafters in recent times, compared to when they entered the league, and the 2005 delistings also show that with players like Tony Stribling and Dion Woods who were drafted late by the Dockers. But going back to 2004, when Clive Waterhouse was officially delisted, would change their ranking here.
Like Melbourne with the worst number, Geelong might have had the best rank here but that was only from one player. Adding Cameron Thurley with the delistings from 2005 would bring Geelong back to around 40, which is around the average so far for all teams.
Melbourne: 15
N Smith, 15
Carlton: 18
L Livingston, 4
T Sporn, 11
J Davies, 39
St Kilda: 24
M Ferguson, 22
M McGough 49
Hawthorn: 26
L Brennan 8
N Ries, 21
H Miller, 25
M Ball, 51
Western Bulldogs: 32
J Wells, 22
B Murphy, 33
K McGuinness, 42
West Coast Eagles: 36
T Gaspar, 14
B Smith, 57
Sydney Swans: 41
J Willoughby, 16
D Spriggs, 47
M Davis, 59
Collingwood: 42
J Cloke, 19
B Hall, 35
C Cloke, 43
A Iacobucci, 55
J Rowe, 60
Essendon: 42
T Cartledge, 28
J Reynolds, 31
A Lucy, 66
Adelaide: 43
C Gibson, 28
A Obst, 48
H Skipworth, 53
Port Adelaide: 43
J Ezard, 34
B Eckermann, 51
Richmond: 48
D Rodan, 33
T Roach, 37
D Limbach, 52
A Kellaway, 71
Brisbane: 50
J Attard, 50
Kangaroos: 53
Chad Jones, 24
T Makepeace, 81
Fremantle: 64
B Copping, 59
D Haines, 69
Geelong: 69
M McCarthy, 69
So a number over 50 or so for the list below indicates a team mainly delisted players that were taken in later rounds, so they must have gotten value with early picks. While teams that had to delist players that they previously took with first or second round picks are ranked around the 20s for their average number.
Will update and expand these numbers soon by adding the delistings from 2005. That will give a lot more information and accurate results with more players and picks to average out. Consider this post a preview, and when the sample size is increased the draft efficiency results will be clearer.
But the numbers for 2006 do show a few trends which make sense, like Carlton and Hawthorn both went through a bad patch with the drafts and identifying players. Although when the 2005 numbers are added those two teams won't look as bad as they did not delist a top 10 drafted player, like Livingston or Brennan, that year.
Down the other end of the list, the Kangaroos don't delist a lot of players that they actually drafted themselves in the AFL National Drafts. But while they may have been drafting useful players, in recent seasons they have been trading away a lot of their early picks instead of using them. Fremantle have been much better drafters in recent times, compared to when they entered the league, and the 2005 delistings also show that with players like Tony Stribling and Dion Woods who were drafted late by the Dockers. But going back to 2004, when Clive Waterhouse was officially delisted, would change their ranking here.
Like Melbourne with the worst number, Geelong might have had the best rank here but that was only from one player. Adding Cameron Thurley with the delistings from 2005 would bring Geelong back to around 40, which is around the average so far for all teams.
Melbourne: 15
N Smith, 15
Carlton: 18
L Livingston, 4
T Sporn, 11
J Davies, 39
St Kilda: 24
M Ferguson, 22
M McGough 49
Hawthorn: 26
L Brennan 8
N Ries, 21
H Miller, 25
M Ball, 51
Western Bulldogs: 32
J Wells, 22
B Murphy, 33
K McGuinness, 42
West Coast Eagles: 36
T Gaspar, 14
B Smith, 57
Sydney Swans: 41
J Willoughby, 16
D Spriggs, 47
M Davis, 59
Collingwood: 42
J Cloke, 19
B Hall, 35
C Cloke, 43
A Iacobucci, 55
J Rowe, 60
Essendon: 42
T Cartledge, 28
J Reynolds, 31
A Lucy, 66
Adelaide: 43
C Gibson, 28
A Obst, 48
H Skipworth, 53
Port Adelaide: 43
J Ezard, 34
B Eckermann, 51
Richmond: 48
D Rodan, 33
T Roach, 37
D Limbach, 52
A Kellaway, 71
Brisbane: 50
J Attard, 50
Kangaroos: 53
Chad Jones, 24
T Makepeace, 81
Fremantle: 64
B Copping, 59
D Haines, 69
Geelong: 69
M McCarthy, 69
