AFL Round 7 Preview
Kangaroos v Essendon
The Tip: Kangaroos by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Drew Petrie
Chance For An Upset: Kangaroos are slight favourites to win this very close contest. With Bolton out, Essendon's chances must surely improve.
Kangaroos
They win if....Brown and Edwards can score goals against their much more experienced opponents, Fletcher and Michael.
They lose if...they don't have the right player on Lucas, and in the past three rounds the right opponent for him has been a smaller but quicker player, which was Gram, O'Brien and C Brown.
The Good News: They already have 3 consecutive wins, and a couple of easier games after this one.
The Bad News: Simpson may not play.
Essendon
They win if....Hille and Laycock can stop McIntosh's All-Australian form.
They lose if...Hird doesn't kick goals.
The Good News: They need the big man mountain, Hille. He is back for this game.
The Bad News: Lucas has gone cold, Lloyd isn't there, their offensive power is diminished.
Collingwood v Carlton
The Tip: Collingwood by 28 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Heath Shaw
Chance For An Upset: Both these teams defeated Essendon when the Bombers were supposed to win, this is another big game that teams will lift for. Another 8 goals by Fevola and there is another upset.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser, and Bryan, have a big game against Ackland and whoever else Carlton have in the ruck.
They lose if...they don't stop Murphy, teams have targeted the second year player and have stopped his influence in recent games.
The Good News: Holland will take time off from his many public appearances to play a game of football now that his suspension is over.
The Bad News: No Clement, Carlton can play a tall forward setup and Clement would have been important in stopping that.
Carlton
They win if....They have accountable forwards like Betts or Carrazzo who contain the run of the Shaws, Lockyer and Pendlebury.
They lose if...Fevola has fits at the umpire or arguments with the crowd.
The Good News: Koutoufides returns for his first game of the season.
The Bad News: The battle of the Clokes won't be happening this round.
Port Adelaide v Richmond
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: P Burgoyne
Chance For An Upset: Richmond should get closer than they did last round, but not much closer.
Port Adelaide
They win if....the game proceeds as scheduled. The Power have 5 wins, the Tigers 6 losses, unless 10 players are injured in the first quarter the Power will have it easy.
They lose if...they act like they will win for just turning up, but they won't as there is a lot of competition for spots there so the players know they have to perform.
The Good News: Rodan could kick as many goals as the other team.
The Bad News: Kane Cornes isn't feeling the best after being Picketted last round.
Richmond
They win if....Riewoldt plays and kicks 10, although maybe they would need Jack and Nick to be competitive here.
They lose if...their onballers think their ruckman will win the hitouts.
The Good News: Howat is back in the team, although they need more than that. Riewoldt might be a late inclusion.
The Bad News: The round 6 game against Geelong, very bad.
Brisbane v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are on a roll so Adelaide is the upset choice.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown keeps getting help with McGrath, Johnson and Patfull also kicking goals.
They lose if...they bomb it long and don't respect the Crows' very good back line.
The Good News: No changes are needed.
The Bad News: Brown has not been kicking the ball well in Queensland.
Adelaide
They win if....McLeod, Mattner and Bassett provide a constant quality supply of the ball to their forwards.
They lose if...they don't have a forward kick 4 or 5 goals.
The Good News: Burton and Hudson are named in the team, so they might play.
The Bad News: The last couple of weeks their strategy, of slowing the game down, has not worked.
St Kilda v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Kirk
Chance For An Upset: The Saints are very slight favourites, so this is a difficult game to predict.
St Kilda
They win if....they can implement the tactics that the Kangaroos used for the first three quarters last week under the roof.
They lose if...Koschitzke has to be played deep in the back line on Everitt.
The Good News: Their back line is bolstered by the return of S Fisher.
The Bad News: Hudghton was close to playing, an extra tall defender would have been important.
Sydney
They win if....Goodes gets going and plays at his best.
They lose if...Hall has another slow start to the game.
The Good News: They have some more run with Buchanan and Bevan included after overcoming their injuries.
The Bad News: They have lost something from the past couple of years, teams are not as worried about them now.
Geelong v West Coast
The Tip: West Coast by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Darren Glass
Chance For An Upset: Geelong kicked the 8th highest score ever last week so they can win, especially with home ground advantage.
Geelong
They win if....they stop Judd, Wojcinski might be the player to do it.
They lose if...there big forwards don't mark the ball and the Eagles players run from the back with it.
The Good News: They had a good win last round.
The Bad News: Chapman is one of their fiercest players, without him they are in trouble.
West Coast
They win if....Seaby has another big game as the starting ruckman.
They lose if...Q doesn't have a big game.
The Good News: They keep on winning.
The Bad News: They can win without him, but they would be much happier if Dean Cox was in the team this week.
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Akermanis
Chance For An Upset: Melbourne are getting close, and their team is getting stronger, but under the roof they are not as good as playing at the MCG.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they contain Neitz.
They lose if...Cooney and Griffin don't do more to help West and Cross.
The Good News: Hahn is back.
The Bad News: Murphy is out.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White is the best player out there.
They lose if...they are slow.
The Good News: Green is back with White and Brown.
The Bad News: Petterd has been one of their best in the past two games, now he is the latest addition to their extensive injured list.
Fremantle v Hawthorn
The Tip: Fremantle by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Hawthorn are playing well, the Dockers are playing poorly, so the Hawks can do it.
Fremantle
They win if....Sandilands, and maybe Warnock, control the stoppages.
They lose if...Pavlich is contained.
The Good News: Warnock, who played his first game last week, has some ability and should have a long career.
The Bad News: They have underachieved and are now under a lot of pressure.
Hawthorn
They win if....Brown has another big game.
They lose if...Sewell doesn't do his magic and shut down another midfield star.
The Good News: They know they are a chance every week, if Lance Franklin stars.
The Bad News: It has not been a good season for Vandenberg, he is injured again.
The Tip: Kangaroos by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Drew Petrie
Chance For An Upset: Kangaroos are slight favourites to win this very close contest. With Bolton out, Essendon's chances must surely improve.
Kangaroos
They win if....Brown and Edwards can score goals against their much more experienced opponents, Fletcher and Michael.
They lose if...they don't have the right player on Lucas, and in the past three rounds the right opponent for him has been a smaller but quicker player, which was Gram, O'Brien and C Brown.
The Good News: They already have 3 consecutive wins, and a couple of easier games after this one.
The Bad News: Simpson may not play.
Essendon
They win if....Hille and Laycock can stop McIntosh's All-Australian form.
They lose if...Hird doesn't kick goals.
The Good News: They need the big man mountain, Hille. He is back for this game.
The Bad News: Lucas has gone cold, Lloyd isn't there, their offensive power is diminished.
Collingwood v Carlton
The Tip: Collingwood by 28 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Heath Shaw
Chance For An Upset: Both these teams defeated Essendon when the Bombers were supposed to win, this is another big game that teams will lift for. Another 8 goals by Fevola and there is another upset.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser, and Bryan, have a big game against Ackland and whoever else Carlton have in the ruck.
They lose if...they don't stop Murphy, teams have targeted the second year player and have stopped his influence in recent games.
The Good News: Holland will take time off from his many public appearances to play a game of football now that his suspension is over.
The Bad News: No Clement, Carlton can play a tall forward setup and Clement would have been important in stopping that.
Carlton
They win if....They have accountable forwards like Betts or Carrazzo who contain the run of the Shaws, Lockyer and Pendlebury.
They lose if...Fevola has fits at the umpire or arguments with the crowd.
The Good News: Koutoufides returns for his first game of the season.
The Bad News: The battle of the Clokes won't be happening this round.
Port Adelaide v Richmond
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: P Burgoyne
Chance For An Upset: Richmond should get closer than they did last round, but not much closer.
Port Adelaide
They win if....the game proceeds as scheduled. The Power have 5 wins, the Tigers 6 losses, unless 10 players are injured in the first quarter the Power will have it easy.
They lose if...they act like they will win for just turning up, but they won't as there is a lot of competition for spots there so the players know they have to perform.
The Good News: Rodan could kick as many goals as the other team.
The Bad News: Kane Cornes isn't feeling the best after being Picketted last round.
Richmond
They win if....Riewoldt plays and kicks 10, although maybe they would need Jack and Nick to be competitive here.
They lose if...their onballers think their ruckman will win the hitouts.
The Good News: Howat is back in the team, although they need more than that. Riewoldt might be a late inclusion.
The Bad News: The round 6 game against Geelong, very bad.
Brisbane v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are on a roll so Adelaide is the upset choice.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown keeps getting help with McGrath, Johnson and Patfull also kicking goals.
They lose if...they bomb it long and don't respect the Crows' very good back line.
The Good News: No changes are needed.
The Bad News: Brown has not been kicking the ball well in Queensland.
Adelaide
They win if....McLeod, Mattner and Bassett provide a constant quality supply of the ball to their forwards.
They lose if...they don't have a forward kick 4 or 5 goals.
The Good News: Burton and Hudson are named in the team, so they might play.
The Bad News: The last couple of weeks their strategy, of slowing the game down, has not worked.
St Kilda v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Kirk
Chance For An Upset: The Saints are very slight favourites, so this is a difficult game to predict.
St Kilda
They win if....they can implement the tactics that the Kangaroos used for the first three quarters last week under the roof.
They lose if...Koschitzke has to be played deep in the back line on Everitt.
The Good News: Their back line is bolstered by the return of S Fisher.
The Bad News: Hudghton was close to playing, an extra tall defender would have been important.
Sydney
They win if....Goodes gets going and plays at his best.
They lose if...Hall has another slow start to the game.
The Good News: They have some more run with Buchanan and Bevan included after overcoming their injuries.
The Bad News: They have lost something from the past couple of years, teams are not as worried about them now.
Geelong v West Coast
The Tip: West Coast by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Darren Glass
Chance For An Upset: Geelong kicked the 8th highest score ever last week so they can win, especially with home ground advantage.
Geelong
They win if....they stop Judd, Wojcinski might be the player to do it.
They lose if...there big forwards don't mark the ball and the Eagles players run from the back with it.
The Good News: They had a good win last round.
The Bad News: Chapman is one of their fiercest players, without him they are in trouble.
West Coast
They win if....Seaby has another big game as the starting ruckman.
They lose if...Q doesn't have a big game.
The Good News: They keep on winning.
The Bad News: They can win without him, but they would be much happier if Dean Cox was in the team this week.
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Akermanis
Chance For An Upset: Melbourne are getting close, and their team is getting stronger, but under the roof they are not as good as playing at the MCG.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they contain Neitz.
They lose if...Cooney and Griffin don't do more to help West and Cross.
The Good News: Hahn is back.
The Bad News: Murphy is out.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White is the best player out there.
They lose if...they are slow.
The Good News: Green is back with White and Brown.
The Bad News: Petterd has been one of their best in the past two games, now he is the latest addition to their extensive injured list.
Fremantle v Hawthorn
The Tip: Fremantle by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Hawthorn are playing well, the Dockers are playing poorly, so the Hawks can do it.
Fremantle
They win if....Sandilands, and maybe Warnock, control the stoppages.
They lose if...Pavlich is contained.
The Good News: Warnock, who played his first game last week, has some ability and should have a long career.
The Bad News: They have underachieved and are now under a lot of pressure.
Hawthorn
They win if....Brown has another big game.
They lose if...Sewell doesn't do his magic and shut down another midfield star.
The Good News: They know they are a chance every week, if Lance Franklin stars.
The Bad News: It has not been a good season for Vandenberg, he is injured again.
It was certainly close, the Bulldogs got what they needed with the Akermanis trade as he was a big part of the win.