AFL Round 6 Preview
St Kilda v Carlton
The Tip: St Kilda by 27 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: The Blues have the forward line to trouble the Saints, it will depend on how much of the ball they are supplied with for the Blues to win.
St Kilda
They win if....Ball and Dal Santo play at Harvey's level from last week.
They lose if...they don't get Gehrig and Riewoldt the ball.
The Good News: It won't rain on them this week.
The Bad News: They have already lost a lot of their back line, they are now without a couple of veteran midfielders, Hayes and Thompson.
Carlton
They win if....Josh Kennedy can expose the lack of height of the Saints' defenders.
They lose if...they start Murphy on the bench at the beginning of quarters.
The Good News: They kicked plenty of goals last week.
The Bad News: Pagan was outcoached in the second half last round.
Essendon v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 20 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke Hodge
Chance For An Upset: Hawthorn is the underdog, but with Hille out it evens things up a bit.
Essendon
They win if....Ryder is played on Franklin.
They lose if...Bolton actually plays.
The Good News: They have had a good break since they played Collingwood.
The Bad News: Hille won't be playing.
Hawthorn
They win if....Campbell is physical in the ruck.
They lose if...Boyle doesn't kick some goals.
The Good News: They needed Croad back to play on Lucas or Lloyd, they would have been very short if he couldn’t play.
The Bad News: Not enough players kicked goals with Williams out last week.
West Coast v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: Picking the Bulldogs is the upset selection.
West Coast
They win if....Cox dominates against Minson.
They lose if...Lynch doesn't lead his team in goals.
The Good News: A very settled lineup and they again don't have to make any changes.
The Bad News: They had trouble with the Bulldogs in the regular season last year, and in the preseason just a few months ago.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Cross, West and Akermanis trouble the Eagles' onballers.
They lose if...the Eagles play their other ruckman as a forward and the Bulldogs are too short for that tactic.
The Good News: Darcy was good in the preseason practice match at Subiaco, he is getting close to his best form now.
The Bad News: Minson will have to be smart and disciplined to defeat Cox, that will be a big test as he has been giving away a few free kicks.
Kangaroos v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 45 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Goodes
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos are going for their third win in a row, so they are a chance.
Kangaroos
They win if....they find someone who can play on Goodes and slow him down.
They lose if...Daniel Wells doesn't continue running.
The Good News: They weren't supposed to win the past games but they did.
The Bad News: Firrito is too small, Petrie is too slow, Watt isn't strong enough, Hall could hurt them.
Sydney
They win if....Jolly and Everitt get on top of McIntosh in the ruck.
They lose if...they lose any more of their important defenders.
The Good News: The tribunal allowed Goodes to play.
The Bad News: The loss of Kennelly will slow them down.
Adelaide v Collingwood
The Tip: Adelaide by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: The Magpies can win interstate, but the Crows are playing too good right now to be upset. Someone like Didak or Thomas, who was cleared of his Paddy whack last round, will have to have a huge game for Collingwood to win.
Adelaide
They win if....they cut off the supply to Rocca.
They lose if...Porplyzia and Reilly were not replaced adequately.
The Good News: Welsh is back and they need to kick some more goals.
The Bad News: The injury list keeps getting new additions, with a couple of midfielders being added this round.
Collingwood
They win if....Cloke kicks goals.
They lose if...the Shaws don't combine for over 60 possessions.
The Good News: Bryan is providing some help for Fraser.
The Bad News: Still no Buckley, he was big the last time they played in Adelaide.
Brisbane v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 21 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke McPharlin
Chance For An Upset: A coin-flip for the result, a close game is expected.
Brisbane
They win if....Charman and McDonald can battle the big Fremantle ruckmen.
They lose if...they can't find the right player to contain Pavlich.
The Good News: Lappin is back.
The Bad News: They won't play as well as they did last week, or score as efficiently.
Fremantle
They win if....their defenders shut down the Lions' secondary forwards like McGrath and Patfull.
They lose if...they are distracted by some of the recent off-field events.
The Good News: They are going to have around 416cm of ruckmen, with Sandilands and Warnock.
The Bad News: The Dockers don't win in Queensland.
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Kane Cornes
Chance For An Upset: They are getting some players back, so Melbourne's first win is getting closer.
Melbourne
They win if....Neitz kicks 10.
They lose if...they don't get huge games from some of their young players.
The Good News: They were competitive against the Swans for much of the game last round.
The Bad News: The Demons are playing one of the best teams in the AFL.
Port Adelaide:
They win if....2 Cornes and 2 Burgoynes play.
They lose if...Tredrea doesn't kick a goal.
The Good News: Only one loss so far.
The Bad News: Salopek and Wilson are injured.
Richmond v Geelong
The Tip: Richmond by 36 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Troy Simmonds
Chance For An Upset: The Cats often lose games they are supposed to win, like last week.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds outruns his opponent.
They lose if...they kick inaccurately for goal.
The Good News: They were within a goal of the Eagles in the 4th quarter last week.
The Bad News: After this game the Tigers have two trips to Adelaide coming up.
Geelong
They win if....Hawkins plays, and plays well.
They lose if...their midfield performs like it did last week.
The Good News: The Cats have already had a few Rising Star nominations.
The Bad News: Steve Johnson has been rushed into the team, he is not the answer to their problems.
The Tip: St Kilda by 27 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: The Blues have the forward line to trouble the Saints, it will depend on how much of the ball they are supplied with for the Blues to win.
St Kilda
They win if....Ball and Dal Santo play at Harvey's level from last week.
They lose if...they don't get Gehrig and Riewoldt the ball.
The Good News: It won't rain on them this week.
The Bad News: They have already lost a lot of their back line, they are now without a couple of veteran midfielders, Hayes and Thompson.
Carlton
They win if....Josh Kennedy can expose the lack of height of the Saints' defenders.
They lose if...they start Murphy on the bench at the beginning of quarters.
The Good News: They kicked plenty of goals last week.
The Bad News: Pagan was outcoached in the second half last round.
Essendon v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 20 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke Hodge
Chance For An Upset: Hawthorn is the underdog, but with Hille out it evens things up a bit.
Essendon
They win if....Ryder is played on Franklin.
They lose if...Bolton actually plays.
The Good News: They have had a good break since they played Collingwood.
The Bad News: Hille won't be playing.
Hawthorn
They win if....Campbell is physical in the ruck.
They lose if...Boyle doesn't kick some goals.
The Good News: They needed Croad back to play on Lucas or Lloyd, they would have been very short if he couldn’t play.
The Bad News: Not enough players kicked goals with Williams out last week.
West Coast v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: Picking the Bulldogs is the upset selection.
West Coast
They win if....Cox dominates against Minson.
They lose if...Lynch doesn't lead his team in goals.
The Good News: A very settled lineup and they again don't have to make any changes.
The Bad News: They had trouble with the Bulldogs in the regular season last year, and in the preseason just a few months ago.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Cross, West and Akermanis trouble the Eagles' onballers.
They lose if...the Eagles play their other ruckman as a forward and the Bulldogs are too short for that tactic.
The Good News: Darcy was good in the preseason practice match at Subiaco, he is getting close to his best form now.
The Bad News: Minson will have to be smart and disciplined to defeat Cox, that will be a big test as he has been giving away a few free kicks.
Kangaroos v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 45 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Goodes
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos are going for their third win in a row, so they are a chance.
Kangaroos
They win if....they find someone who can play on Goodes and slow him down.
They lose if...Daniel Wells doesn't continue running.
The Good News: They weren't supposed to win the past games but they did.
The Bad News: Firrito is too small, Petrie is too slow, Watt isn't strong enough, Hall could hurt them.
Sydney
They win if....Jolly and Everitt get on top of McIntosh in the ruck.
They lose if...they lose any more of their important defenders.
The Good News: The tribunal allowed Goodes to play.
The Bad News: The loss of Kennelly will slow them down.
Adelaide v Collingwood
The Tip: Adelaide by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: The Magpies can win interstate, but the Crows are playing too good right now to be upset. Someone like Didak or Thomas, who was cleared of his Paddy whack last round, will have to have a huge game for Collingwood to win.
Adelaide
They win if....they cut off the supply to Rocca.
They lose if...Porplyzia and Reilly were not replaced adequately.
The Good News: Welsh is back and they need to kick some more goals.
The Bad News: The injury list keeps getting new additions, with a couple of midfielders being added this round.
Collingwood
They win if....Cloke kicks goals.
They lose if...the Shaws don't combine for over 60 possessions.
The Good News: Bryan is providing some help for Fraser.
The Bad News: Still no Buckley, he was big the last time they played in Adelaide.
Brisbane v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 21 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke McPharlin
Chance For An Upset: A coin-flip for the result, a close game is expected.
Brisbane
They win if....Charman and McDonald can battle the big Fremantle ruckmen.
They lose if...they can't find the right player to contain Pavlich.
The Good News: Lappin is back.
The Bad News: They won't play as well as they did last week, or score as efficiently.
Fremantle
They win if....their defenders shut down the Lions' secondary forwards like McGrath and Patfull.
They lose if...they are distracted by some of the recent off-field events.
The Good News: They are going to have around 416cm of ruckmen, with Sandilands and Warnock.
The Bad News: The Dockers don't win in Queensland.
Melbourne v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Kane Cornes
Chance For An Upset: They are getting some players back, so Melbourne's first win is getting closer.
Melbourne
They win if....Neitz kicks 10.
They lose if...they don't get huge games from some of their young players.
The Good News: They were competitive against the Swans for much of the game last round.
The Bad News: The Demons are playing one of the best teams in the AFL.
Port Adelaide:
They win if....2 Cornes and 2 Burgoynes play.
They lose if...Tredrea doesn't kick a goal.
The Good News: Only one loss so far.
The Bad News: Salopek and Wilson are injured.
Richmond v Geelong
The Tip: Richmond by 36 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Troy Simmonds
Chance For An Upset: The Cats often lose games they are supposed to win, like last week.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds outruns his opponent.
They lose if...they kick inaccurately for goal.
The Good News: They were within a goal of the Eagles in the 4th quarter last week.
The Bad News: After this game the Tigers have two trips to Adelaide coming up.
Geelong
They win if....Hawkins plays, and plays well.
They lose if...their midfield performs like it did last week.
The Good News: The Cats have already had a few Rising Star nominations.
The Bad News: Steve Johnson has been rushed into the team, he is not the answer to their problems.
