AFL Round 5 Preview
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
The Tip: Power by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Kane Cornes
Chance For An Upset: The Saints were not good last week, they will need a big turnaround in form to win this game and a lot of that might depend on Gehrig. If Gehrig kicks some goals they are a chance.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they continue to get goals from a large number of forwards.
They lose if...Hayes and Dal Santo have a big game and outplay the Burgoynes.
The Good News: Playing in the rain didn't stop Collingwood winning their next game, and the Power had more time to rest.
The Bad News: There isn't a lot of bad news there, Pearce is still out but will be back soon.
St Kilda
They win if....whoever they decide to play as a tall defender has a good game.
They lose if...Clarke is too old to battle Lade and Brogan.
The Good News: Fraser Gehrig is back after a week off, and he will be very enthusiastic when he starts this game.
The Bad News: They are without their top 3 tall defenders.
Richmond v West Coast
The Tip: Eagles by 100 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Quinten Lynch
Chance For An Upset: Daniel-san was a big underdog and he won, but he was coached by Mr Myagi and not Terry Wallace. If Richardson has a big day then the Tigers might too.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson has a big day, Simmonds wins his ruck contest with Cox/Seaby and the Eagles have a few injuries.
They lose if...they allow the Eagles' onballers to do as they please.
The Good News: Raines was quiet in the first 3 rounds, he was much better last week.
The Bad News: There is no other Saturday afternoon game, so if it becomes unwatchable there isn't another game on a different channel to watch.
West Coast
They win if....they continue doing what they are doing, and they have the same team as last week so that is their intention.
They lose if...they take this game lightly, the Tigers have a lot of star players who could make it tough for them.
The Good News: Worst versus first, so they should continue their streak.
The Bad News: They have to stick around and then visit the AFL, and they don't seem to understand the importance of that.
Carlton v Brisbane
The Tip: Lions by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Simon Black
Chance For An Upset: This is an even game, Carlton beat them before and could do it again.
Carlton
They win if....Brown is contained and Fevola isn't, lots of pressure on Setanta "Santa's Helper" O'hAilpin and Daniel "I’m Not Roger" Merrett for this game.
They lose if...the ClokeLand ruck combo don't punish the Lions' big ruckmen by finding space around the ground and also going forward to kick goals.
The Good News: They beat this team, at the same venue, not long ago.
The Bad News: Brad Fisher has been very effective in his role as a secondary forward around Fevola, he will be out of action for around a month.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks better than he did last week.
They lose if...Patfull and McGrath don't help out in the forward line and on the scoreboard.
The Good News: Roe was good last game, and his long kicking will be an asset in this game.
The Bad News: No Lappin again.
Sydney v Melbourne
The Tip: Swans by 66 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Barry Hall
Chance For An Upset: Stranger things have happened, but it won’t happen this time.
Sydney
They win if....they turn up with their team, unfortunately their opponent can't do that due to so many injured players.
They lose if...they are thinking what it says above, but Sydney won't lose two in a row.
The Good News: Nick Davis returns, so they aren't far away from putting their best team on the field.
The Bad News: They were terrible last week, but that was the Crows in Adelaide.
Melbourne
They win if....Dunn dominates, leave him and Davey in the forward 50 and see what happens.
They lose if...they play without Neitz, Green, Robertson, McLean, Jones and Frawley.
The Good News: It's at the SCG so their fans have a valid reason for not attending this week.
The Bad News: It's all bad, now Green is out too.
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Bulldogs by 17 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Daniel Giansiracusa
Chance For An Upset: The Hawks are missing a couple of important players, including Mark Williams who can win a game by himself, so it will be difficult for Hawthorn.
Hawthorn
They win if....they find a big full forward who has a Dunstall-like game.
They lose if...they are slow.
The Good News: They have won 75% of their games so far.
The Bad News: Mark Williams is out for possibly 6 weeks.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....their forward structure they had last week fires again. They have the small, medium and large options to choose from with Johnson, Murphy and Darcy.
They lose if...they are unable to stop a big Hawthorn forward line.
The Good News: They won last week, and add Akermanis and Cross to that team.
The Bad News: They don't have anyone to play on Lance Franklin.
Geelong v Kangaroos
The Tip: Cats by 5 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Wojcinski
Chance For An Upset: Geelong have the habit of losing when they should win, but that is less likely to occur at their real home ground.
Geelong
They win if....Hawkins, Ottens, Mooney and N Ablett kick goals. Ottens didn't play last week, the others went goalless.
They lose if...King can't keep up with McIntosh.
The Good News: The game is at Kardinia Park.
The Bad News: If they lose this game there will be unrest there, and deserved it would be because they have the players to contend.
Kangaroos
They win if....someone like L Brown kicks a few goals again.
They lose if...they don't pay attention to Bartel and Enright.
The Good News: The Kangaroos have a chance to get a win streak going.
The Bad News: All the off-field stuff.
Fremantle v Adelaide
The Tip: Dockers by 12 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Pavlich
Chance For An Upset: Any team can win this, a slight advantage to Fremantle with home ground advantage.
Fremantle
They win if....Pavlich and Tarrant have plenty of space up forward.
They lose if...their forwards don't stop the run the Crows have from the back, Solomon could be important here.
The Good News: Michael Johnson is back in the team, and he will combine with Mundy for a lot of possessions in the back line.
The Bad News: They only have 1 win, and are playing against an in-form opposition.
Adelaide
They win if....they execute their game strategy like they did last week.
They lose if...McLeod is stopped.
The Good News: They know South Australian teams can go to Subiaco and defeat the Dockers.
The Bad News: They won't be able to shut down a team as good as they did last week.
The Tip: Power by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Kane Cornes
Chance For An Upset: The Saints were not good last week, they will need a big turnaround in form to win this game and a lot of that might depend on Gehrig. If Gehrig kicks some goals they are a chance.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they continue to get goals from a large number of forwards.
They lose if...Hayes and Dal Santo have a big game and outplay the Burgoynes.
The Good News: Playing in the rain didn't stop Collingwood winning their next game, and the Power had more time to rest.
The Bad News: There isn't a lot of bad news there, Pearce is still out but will be back soon.
St Kilda
They win if....whoever they decide to play as a tall defender has a good game.
They lose if...Clarke is too old to battle Lade and Brogan.
The Good News: Fraser Gehrig is back after a week off, and he will be very enthusiastic when he starts this game.
The Bad News: They are without their top 3 tall defenders.
Richmond v West Coast
The Tip: Eagles by 100 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Quinten Lynch
Chance For An Upset: Daniel-san was a big underdog and he won, but he was coached by Mr Myagi and not Terry Wallace. If Richardson has a big day then the Tigers might too.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson has a big day, Simmonds wins his ruck contest with Cox/Seaby and the Eagles have a few injuries.
They lose if...they allow the Eagles' onballers to do as they please.
The Good News: Raines was quiet in the first 3 rounds, he was much better last week.
The Bad News: There is no other Saturday afternoon game, so if it becomes unwatchable there isn't another game on a different channel to watch.
West Coast
They win if....they continue doing what they are doing, and they have the same team as last week so that is their intention.
They lose if...they take this game lightly, the Tigers have a lot of star players who could make it tough for them.
The Good News: Worst versus first, so they should continue their streak.
The Bad News: They have to stick around and then visit the AFL, and they don't seem to understand the importance of that.
Carlton v Brisbane
The Tip: Lions by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Simon Black
Chance For An Upset: This is an even game, Carlton beat them before and could do it again.
Carlton
They win if....Brown is contained and Fevola isn't, lots of pressure on Setanta "Santa's Helper" O'hAilpin and Daniel "I’m Not Roger" Merrett for this game.
They lose if...the ClokeLand ruck combo don't punish the Lions' big ruckmen by finding space around the ground and also going forward to kick goals.
The Good News: They beat this team, at the same venue, not long ago.
The Bad News: Brad Fisher has been very effective in his role as a secondary forward around Fevola, he will be out of action for around a month.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks better than he did last week.
They lose if...Patfull and McGrath don't help out in the forward line and on the scoreboard.
The Good News: Roe was good last game, and his long kicking will be an asset in this game.
The Bad News: No Lappin again.
Sydney v Melbourne
The Tip: Swans by 66 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Barry Hall
Chance For An Upset: Stranger things have happened, but it won’t happen this time.
Sydney
They win if....they turn up with their team, unfortunately their opponent can't do that due to so many injured players.
They lose if...they are thinking what it says above, but Sydney won't lose two in a row.
The Good News: Nick Davis returns, so they aren't far away from putting their best team on the field.
The Bad News: They were terrible last week, but that was the Crows in Adelaide.
Melbourne
They win if....Dunn dominates, leave him and Davey in the forward 50 and see what happens.
They lose if...they play without Neitz, Green, Robertson, McLean, Jones and Frawley.
The Good News: It's at the SCG so their fans have a valid reason for not attending this week.
The Bad News: It's all bad, now Green is out too.
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Bulldogs by 17 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Daniel Giansiracusa
Chance For An Upset: The Hawks are missing a couple of important players, including Mark Williams who can win a game by himself, so it will be difficult for Hawthorn.
Hawthorn
They win if....they find a big full forward who has a Dunstall-like game.
They lose if...they are slow.
The Good News: They have won 75% of their games so far.
The Bad News: Mark Williams is out for possibly 6 weeks.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....their forward structure they had last week fires again. They have the small, medium and large options to choose from with Johnson, Murphy and Darcy.
They lose if...they are unable to stop a big Hawthorn forward line.
The Good News: They won last week, and add Akermanis and Cross to that team.
The Bad News: They don't have anyone to play on Lance Franklin.
Geelong v Kangaroos
The Tip: Cats by 5 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Wojcinski
Chance For An Upset: Geelong have the habit of losing when they should win, but that is less likely to occur at their real home ground.
Geelong
They win if....Hawkins, Ottens, Mooney and N Ablett kick goals. Ottens didn't play last week, the others went goalless.
They lose if...King can't keep up with McIntosh.
The Good News: The game is at Kardinia Park.
The Bad News: If they lose this game there will be unrest there, and deserved it would be because they have the players to contend.
Kangaroos
They win if....someone like L Brown kicks a few goals again.
They lose if...they don't pay attention to Bartel and Enright.
The Good News: The Kangaroos have a chance to get a win streak going.
The Bad News: All the off-field stuff.
Fremantle v Adelaide
The Tip: Dockers by 12 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Pavlich
Chance For An Upset: Any team can win this, a slight advantage to Fremantle with home ground advantage.
Fremantle
They win if....Pavlich and Tarrant have plenty of space up forward.
They lose if...their forwards don't stop the run the Crows have from the back, Solomon could be important here.
The Good News: Michael Johnson is back in the team, and he will combine with Mundy for a lot of possessions in the back line.
The Bad News: They only have 1 win, and are playing against an in-form opposition.
Adelaide
They win if....they execute their game strategy like they did last week.
They lose if...McLeod is stopped.
The Good News: They know South Australian teams can go to Subiaco and defeat the Dockers.
The Bad News: They won't be able to shut down a team as good as they did last week.
