AFL Round 4 Preview
Richmond v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lindsay Gilbee
Chance For An Upset: Richmond could have had a winning record at this time, they let a couple of games slip away, so the Tigers are a chance in this game.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds runs forward and kicks a couple of goals.
They lose if...Joel Bowden is at full back.
The Good News: Tambling is performing at a high standard.
The Bad News: There is still no Nathan Brown, or an expected return date.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they rediscover their run and foot skills.
They lose if...the Tigers send Richardson, Polak and Schulz forward and supply them with the ball.
The Good News: Tom Williams finally plays a game of AFL football, it has been a big wait for the high draft pick.
The Bad News: They have a losing streak, not something that was expected.
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Collingwood by 1 point
Best-On-Ground Guess: James Clement
Chance For An Upset: There really isn't a favourite in this game, and both teams are very similar to each other. Lade and Fraser, Tredrea and Rocca, Clement and C Cornes, it should be a close contest.
Collingwood
They win if....their younsters, like Toovey and Thomas, continue to step up while their oldsters, Buckley and Didak, remain sidelined.
They lose if...their ruckmen forget that Lade can kick goals.
The Good News: Clement returns after missing their win last week.
The Bad News: They could be looking too far ahead, to Anzac Day when they play Essendon.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Tredrea can kick some goals.
They lose if...they allow Heath Shaw to run around without an opponent.
The Good News: Rodan returns to the MCG, and he is playing better than he ever did on that ground before.
The Bad News: They will play against Collingwood without Brogan.
St Kilda v Essendon
The Tip: St Kilda by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: This is another close game, maybe some people aren't tipping Essendon because of last week but that was the only game this season when Essendon played a bad half. Essendon are tall at both ends of the ground, they could get the win with the Saints missing some of their taller players.
St Kilda
They win if....players like Fiora and X Clarke can continue to find space and the football.
They lose if...they end up being too short in the back half.
The Good News: Ball should be there, and maybe he replicates Nathan Burke's effort and headwear.
The Bad News: Their G-Train is delayed and won't be available this week.
Essendon
They win if....Lucas catches fire again, he was extinguished in the second half last week.
They lose if...Fletcher unexpectedly finds himself sent to the forward line.
The Good News: Riewoldt's stunt double, Adam McPhee, won't have to play in a key defensive spot with Michael and Ryder in the team now.
The Bad News: They can't find a spot for Courtney Johns.
Kangaroos v Brisbane
The Tip: Brisbane by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Simon Black
Chance For An Upset: When one team has Jonathan and the other has Leigh, it is usually Brisbane's Brown who wins.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie fills the hole where J Brown would like to lead.
They lose if...they are out-coached again, and they are going against the Lethal one.
The Good News: Archer is back.
The Bad News: Hale is out and their forward line is a lot smaller now.
Brisbane
They win if....Roe and Adcock can produce run from the back line.
They lose if...Charman and Brown can't co-exist in the forward 50, that’s a couple of big players there but maybe Charman only plays in the ruck.
The Good News: Roe, Lappin and Charman are inclusions.
The Bad News: It is an away game, and the Kangaroos want them to know that.
Adelaide v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 5 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Craig Bolton
Chance For An Upset: Adelaide is favoured by the majority of tips, so going with Sydney is a risk.
Adelaide
They win if....Hudson and Griffin can at least break even at stoppages with Jolly and Everitt.
They lose if...their forwards don't work hard and allow Bolton, Kennelly and Barry to run with the ball.
The Good News: The Crows have had two big wins.
The Bad News: They have had a tough schedule to open the season, and this could be their most difficult opponent so far.
Sydney
They win if....Goodes runs rampant as the Crows don't have a good matchup for him.
They lose if...they don't get some goals from Schneider, O'Keefe and O'Loughlin.
The Good News: Crouch is ready to start another streak of games played.
The Bad News: A trip to Adelaide is always a difficult encounter.
Hawthorn v Geelong
The Tip: Hawthorn by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Grant Birchall
Chance For An Upset: Geelong in the past didn't win games they were supposed to win, and even though they are the favourites for this game it could happen again. Even the big people at the Cats acknowledge that their team performs in a similar way to a cricket team from the subcontinent.
Hawthorn
They win if....Hawthorn get some goals from Boyle, Roughead and Dixon.
They lose if...they give away too many free kicks.
The Good News: It's their home state advantage.
The Bad News: Nobody can stop Tom Hawkins, so it is the Hawks versus the Hawkins.
Geelong
They win if....King uses his experience against the Hawks' ruckmen.
They lose if...the Hawks can contain the run of Wojcinski and Byrnes.
The Good News: The Abletts are back in action, Nathan returns after missing the game last week.
The Bad News: Ottens won't be playing.
Melbourne v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Pavlich
Chance For An Upset: Both teams are winless and down the bottom of the ladder, Melbourne also have home ground advantage. That is the only advantage they have and an upset is very unlikely.
Melbourne
They win if....Cameron Bruce gets 35 possessions and 5 goals, and he could do it.
They lose if...they don't play a very defensive game and slow everything down.
The Good News: When Pickett is in the team it really helps give them a presence.
The Bad News: They can't kick goals.
Fremantle
They win if....they forget about their previous games and play like they did last season.
They lose if...former Fremantle player Jeff White can run away from Sandilands and kick some goals.
The Good News: They are certainly due for a win.
The Bad News: They had a busy week.
West Coast v Carlton
The Tip: West Coast by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matt Rosa
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are solid down both ends of the field, they could have a problem in the middle with the height of the ruckmen and the experience and strength of the onballers. If Fevola kicks 10 goals they are a chance.
West Coast
They win if....Dean Cox is anywhere near his best.
They lose if...they underrate the young midfielders of Carlton.
The Good News: Players like Priddis, Rosa and Staker have filled the holes that injuries created.
The Bad News: They are not getting a lot from Hansen at the moment.
Carlton
They win if....Fevola dominates for 4 quarters.
They lose if...they don't go with a defensive tactic in the middle, they need to tag everyone.
The Good News: They won last week so their confidence will be there.
The Bad News: They haven't really used Mr Kennedy effectively.
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lindsay Gilbee
Chance For An Upset: Richmond could have had a winning record at this time, they let a couple of games slip away, so the Tigers are a chance in this game.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds runs forward and kicks a couple of goals.
They lose if...Joel Bowden is at full back.
The Good News: Tambling is performing at a high standard.
The Bad News: There is still no Nathan Brown, or an expected return date.
They win if....they rediscover their run and foot skills.
They lose if...the Tigers send Richardson, Polak and Schulz forward and supply them with the ball.
The Good News: Tom Williams finally plays a game of AFL football, it has been a big wait for the high draft pick.
The Bad News: They have a losing streak, not something that was expected.
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Collingwood by 1 point
Best-On-Ground Guess: James Clement
Chance For An Upset: There really isn't a favourite in this game, and both teams are very similar to each other. Lade and Fraser, Tredrea and Rocca, Clement and C Cornes, it should be a close contest.
Collingwood
They win if....their younsters, like Toovey and Thomas, continue to step up while their oldsters, Buckley and Didak, remain sidelined.
They lose if...their ruckmen forget that Lade can kick goals.
The Good News: Clement returns after missing their win last week.
The Bad News: They could be looking too far ahead, to Anzac Day when they play Essendon.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Tredrea can kick some goals.
They lose if...they allow Heath Shaw to run around without an opponent.
The Good News: Rodan returns to the MCG, and he is playing better than he ever did on that ground before.
The Bad News: They will play against Collingwood without Brogan.
St Kilda v Essendon
The Tip: St Kilda by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: This is another close game, maybe some people aren't tipping Essendon because of last week but that was the only game this season when Essendon played a bad half. Essendon are tall at both ends of the ground, they could get the win with the Saints missing some of their taller players.
St Kilda
They win if....players like Fiora and X Clarke can continue to find space and the football.
They lose if...they end up being too short in the back half.
The Good News: Ball should be there, and maybe he replicates Nathan Burke's effort and headwear.
The Bad News: Their G-Train is delayed and won't be available this week.
Essendon
They win if....Lucas catches fire again, he was extinguished in the second half last week.
They lose if...Fletcher unexpectedly finds himself sent to the forward line.
The Good News: Riewoldt's stunt double, Adam McPhee, won't have to play in a key defensive spot with Michael and Ryder in the team now.
The Bad News: They can't find a spot for Courtney Johns.
Kangaroos v Brisbane
The Tip: Brisbane by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Simon Black
Chance For An Upset: When one team has Jonathan and the other has Leigh, it is usually Brisbane's Brown who wins.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie fills the hole where J Brown would like to lead.
They lose if...they are out-coached again, and they are going against the Lethal one.
The Good News: Archer is back.
The Bad News: Hale is out and their forward line is a lot smaller now.
Brisbane
They win if....Roe and Adcock can produce run from the back line.
They lose if...Charman and Brown can't co-exist in the forward 50, that’s a couple of big players there but maybe Charman only plays in the ruck.
The Good News: Roe, Lappin and Charman are inclusions.
The Bad News: It is an away game, and the Kangaroos want them to know that.
Adelaide v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 5 points.
Best-On-Ground Guess: Craig Bolton
Chance For An Upset: Adelaide is favoured by the majority of tips, so going with Sydney is a risk.
Adelaide
They win if....Hudson and Griffin can at least break even at stoppages with Jolly and Everitt.
They lose if...their forwards don't work hard and allow Bolton, Kennelly and Barry to run with the ball.
The Good News: The Crows have had two big wins.
The Bad News: They have had a tough schedule to open the season, and this could be their most difficult opponent so far.
Sydney
They win if....Goodes runs rampant as the Crows don't have a good matchup for him.
They lose if...they don't get some goals from Schneider, O'Keefe and O'Loughlin.
The Good News: Crouch is ready to start another streak of games played.
The Bad News: A trip to Adelaide is always a difficult encounter.
Hawthorn v Geelong
The Tip: Hawthorn by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Grant Birchall
Chance For An Upset: Geelong in the past didn't win games they were supposed to win, and even though they are the favourites for this game it could happen again. Even the big people at the Cats acknowledge that their team performs in a similar way to a cricket team from the subcontinent.
Hawthorn
They win if....Hawthorn get some goals from Boyle, Roughead and Dixon.
They lose if...they give away too many free kicks.
The Good News: It's their home state advantage.
The Bad News: Nobody can stop Tom Hawkins, so it is the Hawks versus the Hawkins.
Geelong
They win if....King uses his experience against the Hawks' ruckmen.
They lose if...the Hawks can contain the run of Wojcinski and Byrnes.
The Good News: The Abletts are back in action, Nathan returns after missing the game last week.
The Bad News: Ottens won't be playing.
Melbourne v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Pavlich
Chance For An Upset: Both teams are winless and down the bottom of the ladder, Melbourne also have home ground advantage. That is the only advantage they have and an upset is very unlikely.
Melbourne
They win if....Cameron Bruce gets 35 possessions and 5 goals, and he could do it.
They lose if...they don't play a very defensive game and slow everything down.
The Good News: When Pickett is in the team it really helps give them a presence.
The Bad News: They can't kick goals.
Fremantle
They win if....they forget about their previous games and play like they did last season.
They lose if...former Fremantle player Jeff White can run away from Sandilands and kick some goals.
The Good News: They are certainly due for a win.
The Bad News: They had a busy week.
West Coast v Carlton
The Tip: West Coast by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matt Rosa
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are solid down both ends of the field, they could have a problem in the middle with the height of the ruckmen and the experience and strength of the onballers. If Fevola kicks 10 goals they are a chance.
West Coast
They win if....Dean Cox is anywhere near his best.
They lose if...they underrate the young midfielders of Carlton.
The Good News: Players like Priddis, Rosa and Staker have filled the holes that injuries created.
The Bad News: They are not getting a lot from Hansen at the moment.
Carlton
They win if....Fevola dominates for 4 quarters.
They lose if...they don't go with a defensive tactic in the middle, they need to tag everyone.
The Good News: They won last week so their confidence will be there.
The Bad News: They haven't really used Mr Kennedy effectively.
