AFL Round 3 Preview
Collingwood v Richmond
The Tip: Collingwood by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Josh Fraser
Chance For An Upset: The Tigers are not playing badly, and had a chance to win both games. If Schulz or Polak can kick some goals to take some of the load off Richardson then it could be another close game.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson gets a good supply of the football
They lose if...small forwards like Krakouer and Pettifer don't stop the run from the back of the Shaws.
The Good News: Simmonds is in the team, but he will have to prove his fitness before the game to play.
The Bad News: Knobel's out for a lot of the season.
Collingwood
They win if....Rocca is too much for Gaspar or any other Tiger to handle.
They lose if...they are inaccurate with their disposals again.
The Good News: Heath Shaw is having a big season.
The Bad News: Johnson will miss.
Carlton v Essendon
The Tip: Essendon by 59 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam McPhee
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are shorter and slower, maybe they will have to turn this game into a test of strength. An old-fashioned game, with Cloke and Fevola throwing their weight around, might be the best strategy.
Carlton
They win if....the big Setanta can quiet one of Essendon's big forwards.
They lose if...they play like they did against Geelong.
The Good News: Gibbs is playing like a number 1 draft pick, Murphy is too
The Bad News: No changes to the team that was defeated by the Cats, that is some strange logic.
Essendon
They win if....Hille and Laycock take advantage of their height in the ruck.
They lose if...they underestimate their young stars in Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson and Bentick.
The Good News: They haven't lost, and they have beaten some of the best.
The Bad News: They are so loaded with talent they can't fit in Courtney Johns.
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 8 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: This is a coin-flip to decide the winner, so no real underdog to consider.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they keep on running.
They lose if...they use Tredrea too much, as he won't be at his best, and ignore some of their other forwards who are playing so well.
The Good News: They enter the game without a loss.
The Bad News: In some ways, the speed and exciting play, the Power are similar to the Bulldogs. That's who the Crows beat last week.
Adelaide
They win if....they can again get goals from Welsh and Perrie.
They lose if...any more injuries take players out of the lineup.
The Good News: Burton gives them the player who can change a game with a freakish mark or goal.
The Bad News: Johncock and Shirley were injured last week, they won't be playing against the Power.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: The Bulldogs are slightly favoured, but this game is very close to call. The Saints have the best unit of three tall forwards in the AFL, the Bulldogs can't stop them if the ball gets there enough.
St Kilda
They win if....they get the ball into their forward line quickly before the Bulldogs get back in numbers.
They lose if...they are exposed in the foot-speed department.
The Good News: Riewoldt is back and the Bulldogs don't have the player to stop him.
The Bad News: Their back line is severely depleted.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Darcy is able to bring down some contested marks.
They lose if...their onballers don't dominate.
The Good News: They finally have their full back in the team, and they need him against the height of the Saints.
The Bad News: Akermanis is out again.
Fremantle v West Coast
The Tip: Fremantle by 7 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Mundy
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles are the favourites, they have the wins in the AFL this season. But the Dockers have a streak going against the Eagles. The Beau Waters versus Dean Solomon contest, that could be another interesting part of the game.
West Coast
They win if....Lynch is able to play well against McPharlin.
They lose if...they let Tarrant or Longmuir score goals.
The Good News: Hansen is back, they don't lose regular season or finals games with him playing.
The Bad News: None on the field.
Fremantle
They win if....Carr, Carr, Cook and Solomon physically dominate some of the Eagles.
They lose if...they play a low-scoring game, which should benefit the Eagles.
The Good News: Longmuir will help Sandilands in the ruck, and also Pavlich and Tarrant up forward.
The Bad News: Their defensive structure is a tad askew without Michael Johnson, he provides both height and run.
Sydney v Brisbane
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Peter Everitt
Chance For An Upset: The Lions haven't lost, they have Brown, Black and Power playing well. They will be more than competitive.
Sydney
They win if....Hall is healthy.
They lose if...they allow Brennan to run around by himself too much.
The Good News: Everitt had a big round 2 game.
The Bad News: O'Loughlin is still a bit down in form, but this milestone game might get the best from him.
Brisbane
They win if....their young onballers, like Rischitelli and Stiller, can match it with their more experienced opponents.
They lose if...the Swans run off Charman and Brown and create a lot of attacking moves.
The Good News: Fixter is ready to fire against his former team.
The Bad News: Roe is a no go.
Melbourne v Geelong
The Tip: Geelong by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Corey Enright
Chance For An Upset: The Demons lose Neitz, Robertson and Rivers so they will start as huge underdogs. A lot will depend on White, he will have an advantage in athleticism over his opponents in the ruck.
Melbourne
They win if....someone unexpected steps in and kicks a bag of goals, maybe one of their ruckman or possibly Bate or even Yze.
They lose if...they don't implement a new, and radical, game-plan.
The Good News: The players they will bring into the team were in good form for Sandringham.
The Bad News: They entered the season with most players available, they are now without their best onballer, tall forward, tall defender and Robertson, he's their second best forward.
Geelong
They win if....N Ablett continues to kick goals.
They lose if...they enter the game thinking they will have it easy.
The Good News: They turned everything around from their round 1 loss.
The Bad News: They are a bit short in the back line.
Kangaroos v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 36
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos have to win a game soon. They are dominating quarters, even halves, but they can't finish off the game.
Kangaroos
They win if....all their forwards fire. They have the players capable of kicking a winning score.
They lose if...they can't find anyone who can contain Franklin, Petrie is their best hope, or maybe Firrito.
The Good News: A lot of their players are getting the job done.
The Bad News: There won't be any help from Archer, he is out injured.
Hawthorn
They win if....someone like Sewell or Bateman can keep Wells from having an influence on the game.
They lose if...they don't get multiple goals from one of their talls, they can't leave it all to Williams.
The Good News: The additions of Brown and Crawford last week added some needed parts to their team.
The Bad News: Clarke could miss half the season with a foot problem.
The Tip: Collingwood by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Josh Fraser
Chance For An Upset: The Tigers are not playing badly, and had a chance to win both games. If Schulz or Polak can kick some goals to take some of the load off Richardson then it could be another close game.
Richmond
They win if....Richardson gets a good supply of the football
They lose if...small forwards like Krakouer and Pettifer don't stop the run from the back of the Shaws.
The Good News: Simmonds is in the team, but he will have to prove his fitness before the game to play.
The Bad News: Knobel's out for a lot of the season.
Collingwood
They win if....Rocca is too much for Gaspar or any other Tiger to handle.
They lose if...they are inaccurate with their disposals again.
The Good News: Heath Shaw is having a big season.
The Bad News: Johnson will miss.
Carlton v Essendon
The Tip: Essendon by 59 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam McPhee
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are shorter and slower, maybe they will have to turn this game into a test of strength. An old-fashioned game, with Cloke and Fevola throwing their weight around, might be the best strategy.
Carlton
They win if....the big Setanta can quiet one of Essendon's big forwards.
They lose if...they play like they did against Geelong.
The Good News: Gibbs is playing like a number 1 draft pick, Murphy is too
The Bad News: No changes to the team that was defeated by the Cats, that is some strange logic.
Essendon
They win if....Hille and Laycock take advantage of their height in the ruck.
They lose if...they underestimate their young stars in Murphy, Gibbs, Simpson and Bentick.
The Good News: They haven't lost, and they have beaten some of the best.
The Bad News: They are so loaded with talent they can't fit in Courtney Johns.
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 8 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: This is a coin-flip to decide the winner, so no real underdog to consider.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they keep on running.
They lose if...they use Tredrea too much, as he won't be at his best, and ignore some of their other forwards who are playing so well.
The Good News: They enter the game without a loss.
The Bad News: In some ways, the speed and exciting play, the Power are similar to the Bulldogs. That's who the Crows beat last week.
Adelaide
They win if....they can again get goals from Welsh and Perrie.
They lose if...any more injuries take players out of the lineup.
The Good News: Burton gives them the player who can change a game with a freakish mark or goal.
The Bad News: Johncock and Shirley were injured last week, they won't be playing against the Power.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: The Bulldogs are slightly favoured, but this game is very close to call. The Saints have the best unit of three tall forwards in the AFL, the Bulldogs can't stop them if the ball gets there enough.
St Kilda
They win if....they get the ball into their forward line quickly before the Bulldogs get back in numbers.
They lose if...they are exposed in the foot-speed department.
The Good News: Riewoldt is back and the Bulldogs don't have the player to stop him.
The Bad News: Their back line is severely depleted.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Darcy is able to bring down some contested marks.
They lose if...their onballers don't dominate.
The Good News: They finally have their full back in the team, and they need him against the height of the Saints.
The Bad News: Akermanis is out again.
Fremantle v West Coast
The Tip: Fremantle by 7 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Mundy
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles are the favourites, they have the wins in the AFL this season. But the Dockers have a streak going against the Eagles. The Beau Waters versus Dean Solomon contest, that could be another interesting part of the game.
West Coast
They win if....Lynch is able to play well against McPharlin.
They lose if...they let Tarrant or Longmuir score goals.
The Good News: Hansen is back, they don't lose regular season or finals games with him playing.
The Bad News: None on the field.
Fremantle
They win if....Carr, Carr, Cook and Solomon physically dominate some of the Eagles.
They lose if...they play a low-scoring game, which should benefit the Eagles.
The Good News: Longmuir will help Sandilands in the ruck, and also Pavlich and Tarrant up forward.
The Bad News: Their defensive structure is a tad askew without Michael Johnson, he provides both height and run.
Sydney v Brisbane
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Peter Everitt
Chance For An Upset: The Lions haven't lost, they have Brown, Black and Power playing well. They will be more than competitive.
Sydney
They win if....Hall is healthy.
They lose if...they allow Brennan to run around by himself too much.
The Good News: Everitt had a big round 2 game.
The Bad News: O'Loughlin is still a bit down in form, but this milestone game might get the best from him.
Brisbane
They win if....their young onballers, like Rischitelli and Stiller, can match it with their more experienced opponents.
They lose if...the Swans run off Charman and Brown and create a lot of attacking moves.
The Good News: Fixter is ready to fire against his former team.
The Bad News: Roe is a no go.
Melbourne v Geelong
The Tip: Geelong by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Corey Enright
Chance For An Upset: The Demons lose Neitz, Robertson and Rivers so they will start as huge underdogs. A lot will depend on White, he will have an advantage in athleticism over his opponents in the ruck.
Melbourne
They win if....someone unexpected steps in and kicks a bag of goals, maybe one of their ruckman or possibly Bate or even Yze.
They lose if...they don't implement a new, and radical, game-plan.
The Good News: The players they will bring into the team were in good form for Sandringham.
The Bad News: They entered the season with most players available, they are now without their best onballer, tall forward, tall defender and Robertson, he's their second best forward.
Geelong
They win if....N Ablett continues to kick goals.
They lose if...they enter the game thinking they will have it easy.
The Good News: They turned everything around from their round 1 loss.
The Bad News: They are a bit short in the back line.
Kangaroos v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 36
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos have to win a game soon. They are dominating quarters, even halves, but they can't finish off the game.
Kangaroos
They win if....all their forwards fire. They have the players capable of kicking a winning score.
They lose if...they can't find anyone who can contain Franklin, Petrie is their best hope, or maybe Firrito.
The Good News: A lot of their players are getting the job done.
The Bad News: There won't be any help from Archer, he is out injured.
Hawthorn
They win if....someone like Sewell or Bateman can keep Wells from having an influence on the game.
They lose if...they don't get multiple goals from one of their talls, they can't leave it all to Williams.
The Good News: The additions of Brown and Crawford last week added some needed parts to their team.
The Bad News: Clarke could miss half the season with a foot problem.
