AFL Round 22 Preview
Collingwood v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: Both teams have a lot to play for. It should be a close game but with Fraser out again the Crows might have an advantage in the middle, Richards will have to lift like he did last week.
Collingwood
They win if....they don't kick to Rocca, the Crows showed last week that they can stop a big forward, so other players like Rusling and Thomas will need to kick the goals.
The Good News: Buckley had a successful return last week and will have a bigger impact this time.
The Bad News: There have to be 10 NFL teams thinking that Anthony Rocca would be a good punter to sign.
Adelaide
They win if....they work harder in the middle for the ball, Hudson's work for the contested ball may be the difference.
The Good News: Adelaide's resurgence coincided with the addition of Nick Gill to their lineup, he provides some of the things that Hentschel used to do.
The Bad News: A university computer looked at all the data and stated that the Crows would win everything this year, and all the Crows can hope for now is to sneak into the last spot in the top 8.
Richmond v St Kilda
The Tip: Richmond by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Richardson
Chance For An Upset: This result could depend on who wins out of Collingwood and Adelaide, but even if the Magpies do win to give the Saints a finals shot, the Tigers would enjoy playing the role of spoiler.
Richmond
They win if....they keep playing in the same way they did last week.
The Good News: Sometimes Tambling goes tumbling, but the times that he has a big influence on the game are increasing.
The Bad News: They have put up with a terrible season but their fans may be given a wooden spoon but not the first pick.
St Kilda
They win if....they adjust to playing at the MCG and not the Dome.
The Good News: The coach thinks Harvey and Gehrig can play another year, that is the correct thinking.
The Bad News: They need Collingwood to win, and it might happen, although if it doesn't then the Saints don't have a lot to play for.
West Coast v Essendon
The Tip: West Coast by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Hunter
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles should win, but it will be about percentage for them. Essendon will at least keep it close, as they will want to redeem themselves for their performance last round.
West Coast
They win if....Priddis continues his big season.
The Good News: Second spot is, sort of, theirs for the taking. They just need to kick a huge score.
The Bad News: Without Hansen, their chances of losing a game increase by a substantial amount.
Essendon
They win if....they use their many tall players and work a mismatch in the forward line.
The Good News: Bolton and Bradley are back in the team, they might both be Melbourne players next year.
The Bad News: After this game it is "out: Sheedy", it will take a long time for the Bombers to recover.
Brisbane v Geelong
The Tip: Geelong by 19 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Ottens
Chance For An Upset: The Cats can't lose two matches in a row, so even with the home crowd behind the Lions it is unlikely that they win.
Brisbane
They win if....Leuenberger and Wood can have a win in the ruck, in a couple of years they could be the best ruck duo in the AFL but right now they are at a disadvantage when it comes to experience and strength.
The Good News: Corrie was injured for a long time but had a successful return last week.
The Bad News: A lot of players have done more than expected this year, but there have been a few, like Sherman and Moody, who seemed to regress in form.
Geelong
They win if....they implement the same strategy the last time they played the Lions, they made it impossible for Brown to win the game.
The Good News: It is a "Selwood Brothers Match", Geelong have yet to lose when Joel competes against an older brother.
The Bad News: The streak ended, it doesn't matter as they still finish far ahead of the other teams.
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 67 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Rodan
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers seem to have started the offseason a week or two early, the Power are fighting for second spot, so the Power have to get the win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they pay extra attention to Pavlich, he is the only one who can hurt them.
The Good News: The Power risked very little when they drafted Rodan, and the rewards have been better than their most optimistic expectations.
The Bad News: They are leaving it very late to kick the winning goal.
Fremantle
They win if....they want the Eagles to finish in second spot.
The Good News: Pavlich can still win the Coleman medal.
The Bad News: The new coach, which probably means Harvey, will need to clean out many of the players.
Sydney v Hawthorn
The Tip: Sydney by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jude Bolton
Chance For An Upset: It will depend on if the Swans are able to put their named team out on the SCG, if their big stars are fit they should get the win.
Sydney
They win if....Hall and Everitt play.
The Good News: They landed another Irish star.
The Bad News: They have more injuries than they normally do in September.
Hawthorn
They win if....they kick a lot more accurately for goal.
The Good News: Quite a large number of Hawks are chances for the All-Australian team.
The Bad News: It looked like it was going to be an easy game to finish off the regular season, as there was talk of Hall resting and O'Loughlin was hurt, but if those two play then the Hawks could be in trouble.
Western Bulldogs v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 77 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Hamish McIntosh
Chance For An Upset:
Western Bulldogs
They win if....McDougall fires.
The Good News: Everitt didn't seem like the right choice in the draft for them, but he has shown that he has a rare combination of height, skills and that he knows how to play.
The Bad News: Back in round 2, they were Victoria's best club, that was a long time ago.
Kangaroos
They win if....they park Petrie in front of goal.
The Good News: Gibson is back after his serious injury.
The Bad News: Coach Laidley seems to be demanding things from the Kangaroos, judging what he has accomplished over the last 5 years he is lucky to even be still around.
Melbourne v Carlton
The Tip: Melbourne by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Green
Chance For An Upset: Someone could be upset, the fans of the winning team. Melbourne have more of their stars available so they should have an easy win.
Melbourne
They win if....
The Good News: Sheedy could, unofficially, be their new coach.
The Bad News: They are about to lose a top 20 draft pick.
Carlton
They win if....a number of Melbourne players are injured in the first quarter.
The Good News: S O'hAilpin has given his all for his team, they have played him in the back line, the ruck and as a forward and next year he should have his brother out there too.
The Bad News: Even with picks 1 and 3, the Blues will continue to lose for a few more years while the players develop.
The Tip: Adelaide by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: Both teams have a lot to play for. It should be a close game but with Fraser out again the Crows might have an advantage in the middle, Richards will have to lift like he did last week.
Collingwood
They win if....they don't kick to Rocca, the Crows showed last week that they can stop a big forward, so other players like Rusling and Thomas will need to kick the goals.
The Good News: Buckley had a successful return last week and will have a bigger impact this time.
The Bad News: There have to be 10 NFL teams thinking that Anthony Rocca would be a good punter to sign.
Adelaide
They win if....they work harder in the middle for the ball, Hudson's work for the contested ball may be the difference.
The Good News: Adelaide's resurgence coincided with the addition of Nick Gill to their lineup, he provides some of the things that Hentschel used to do.
The Bad News: A university computer looked at all the data and stated that the Crows would win everything this year, and all the Crows can hope for now is to sneak into the last spot in the top 8.
Richmond v St Kilda
The Tip: Richmond by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Matthew Richardson
Chance For An Upset: This result could depend on who wins out of Collingwood and Adelaide, but even if the Magpies do win to give the Saints a finals shot, the Tigers would enjoy playing the role of spoiler.
Richmond
They win if....they keep playing in the same way they did last week.
The Good News: Sometimes Tambling goes tumbling, but the times that he has a big influence on the game are increasing.
The Bad News: They have put up with a terrible season but their fans may be given a wooden spoon but not the first pick.
St Kilda
They win if....they adjust to playing at the MCG and not the Dome.
The Good News: The coach thinks Harvey and Gehrig can play another year, that is the correct thinking.
The Bad News: They need Collingwood to win, and it might happen, although if it doesn't then the Saints don't have a lot to play for.
West Coast v Essendon
The Tip: West Coast by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Hunter
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles should win, but it will be about percentage for them. Essendon will at least keep it close, as they will want to redeem themselves for their performance last round.
West Coast
They win if....Priddis continues his big season.
The Good News: Second spot is, sort of, theirs for the taking. They just need to kick a huge score.
The Bad News: Without Hansen, their chances of losing a game increase by a substantial amount.
Essendon
They win if....they use their many tall players and work a mismatch in the forward line.
The Good News: Bolton and Bradley are back in the team, they might both be Melbourne players next year.
The Bad News: After this game it is "out: Sheedy", it will take a long time for the Bombers to recover.
Brisbane v Geelong
The Tip: Geelong by 19 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Ottens
Chance For An Upset: The Cats can't lose two matches in a row, so even with the home crowd behind the Lions it is unlikely that they win.
Brisbane
They win if....Leuenberger and Wood can have a win in the ruck, in a couple of years they could be the best ruck duo in the AFL but right now they are at a disadvantage when it comes to experience and strength.
The Good News: Corrie was injured for a long time but had a successful return last week.
The Bad News: A lot of players have done more than expected this year, but there have been a few, like Sherman and Moody, who seemed to regress in form.
Geelong
They win if....they implement the same strategy the last time they played the Lions, they made it impossible for Brown to win the game.
The Good News: It is a "Selwood Brothers Match", Geelong have yet to lose when Joel competes against an older brother.
The Bad News: The streak ended, it doesn't matter as they still finish far ahead of the other teams.
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 67 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Rodan
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers seem to have started the offseason a week or two early, the Power are fighting for second spot, so the Power have to get the win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they pay extra attention to Pavlich, he is the only one who can hurt them.
The Good News: The Power risked very little when they drafted Rodan, and the rewards have been better than their most optimistic expectations.
The Bad News: They are leaving it very late to kick the winning goal.
Fremantle
They win if....they want the Eagles to finish in second spot.
The Good News: Pavlich can still win the Coleman medal.
The Bad News: The new coach, which probably means Harvey, will need to clean out many of the players.
Sydney v Hawthorn
The Tip: Sydney by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jude Bolton
Chance For An Upset: It will depend on if the Swans are able to put their named team out on the SCG, if their big stars are fit they should get the win.
Sydney
They win if....Hall and Everitt play.
The Good News: They landed another Irish star.
The Bad News: They have more injuries than they normally do in September.
Hawthorn
They win if....they kick a lot more accurately for goal.
The Good News: Quite a large number of Hawks are chances for the All-Australian team.
The Bad News: It looked like it was going to be an easy game to finish off the regular season, as there was talk of Hall resting and O'Loughlin was hurt, but if those two play then the Hawks could be in trouble.
Western Bulldogs v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 77 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Hamish McIntosh
Chance For An Upset:
Western Bulldogs
They win if....McDougall fires.
The Good News: Everitt didn't seem like the right choice in the draft for them, but he has shown that he has a rare combination of height, skills and that he knows how to play.
The Bad News: Back in round 2, they were Victoria's best club, that was a long time ago.
Kangaroos
They win if....they park Petrie in front of goal.
The Good News: Gibson is back after his serious injury.
The Bad News: Coach Laidley seems to be demanding things from the Kangaroos, judging what he has accomplished over the last 5 years he is lucky to even be still around.
Melbourne v Carlton
The Tip: Melbourne by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Green
Chance For An Upset: Someone could be upset, the fans of the winning team. Melbourne have more of their stars available so they should have an easy win.
Melbourne
They win if....
The Good News: Sheedy could, unofficially, be their new coach.
The Bad News: They are about to lose a top 20 draft pick.
Carlton
They win if....a number of Melbourne players are injured in the first quarter.
The Good News: S O'hAilpin has given his all for his team, they have played him in the back line, the ruck and as a forward and next year he should have his brother out there too.
The Bad News: Even with picks 1 and 3, the Blues will continue to lose for a few more years while the players develop.
