AFL Round 21 Preview
St Kilda v West Coast
The Tip: St Kilda by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Fisher
Chance For An Upset: This game is supposed to be close, but people are not sure who will have the advantage until the teams are announced just before the game. Maybe a few Eagles don't play and the Saints might get the win at dome.
St Kilda
They win if....Gehrig has another good game, which will be tough to do against Glass.
The Good News: Koschitzke is back, he was very important last time they played West Coast.
The Bad News: Harvey misses, they can't replace him.
West Coast
They win if....they put the side that they named on the field.
The Good News: Lynch is kicking goals, the Eagles are a much better team when he stays close to goal, although for Lynch he can be 60m out and still close to goal.
The Bad News: Hunter and Staker provided extra forward firepower last round, but they might have to play as defenders this time due to the Saints and their plethora of tall forwards.
Carlton v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Corey Jones
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos have every reason to win, the Blues have plenty of reasons not to win, the Kangaroos have to get the win here.
Carlton
They win if....Mr Kennedy plays at full forward, they picked him high up in the draft but even the new coach doesn't play him. Maybe Kennedy out and Lappin in is good for the draft picks. Kennedy is an emergency, so they might shock the Kangaroos and bring him into the side.
The Good News: Hampson plays his first game, another high draft pick although he is a lot more of a project than Mr Kennedy, Hampson will bring some extra height up forward and should get ruck minutes too.
The Bad News: They seem to be signing all their players, it doesn't make sense to keep trying the same thing and expecting better results.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie and Hale start in the forward line, Carlton don't have the height to contain them.
The Good News: Harris is getting a lot of the ball, it is the players like him who will be important during the tough finals games.
The Bad News: It has not been a good month, and by losing to other top 8 teams it shows that the Kangaroos are not as close as they thought.
Fremantle v Melbourne
The Tip: Fremantle by 61 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Maybe Melbourne win next week, as the Dockers have home ground advantage and most of their players available.
Fremantle
They win if....They start with Warnock using his reach to combat White, and then bring on Gilmore after a few minutes who should be able to keep up with White and even run off him at times.
The Good News: Headland returns, giving them more options in the forward line.
The Bad News: No matter what happens in the final couple of weeks, the Dockers' season has been a disaster.
Melbourne
They win if....they have the same team that the Herald Sun newspaper mistakenly printed, with two Jeff Whites, two Brocks and even a couple of versions of Nathan Jones.
The Good News: Bruce returns, they need him out there as he causes a lot of problems for opposition teams.
The Bad News: They had six forced changes due to injuries, Melbourne should lead the teams and ask for larger player lists, maybe their new coach will get that to happen.
Collingwood v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Goodes
Chance For An Upset: This game should provide plenty of surprises, and picking a winner is tough, but with Fraser out again it does mean the Swans have a huge advantage with their two star ruckmen.
Collingwood
They win if....Buckley gets close to the stats he had last week.
The Good News: Wakelin has played a lot better than most expected this season, although this will be one of his bigger tests.
The Bad News: Richards and Bryan are solid backup players, one of them is good at stoppages while the other can be a forward option, but Fraser can do both those things and the Magpies can struggle without his presence.
Sydney
They win if....Hall kicks goals, he got the ball last round which was a step in the right direction but then when he kicked for goal he sent it in the wrong direction.
The Good News: Goodes is finishing the season a lot better than he played in the early months.
The Bad News: If they had won last week they would be in the top 4 now.
Adelaide v Brisbane
The Tip: Adelaide by 23 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Graham Johncock
Chance For An Upset: Both teams have plenty to play for, and despite having some poor months during the season they can still play in the finals. The home ground might get the Crows the win.
Adelaide
They win if....they use a couple of forwards as defensive players to stop the run of Adcock and Drummond.
The Good News: Ricciuto is playing, he probably has a few more hits left in him.
The Bad News: It's another season for the Crows that has been ruined by injuries.
Brisbane
They win if....Clark or Brennan contribute on the scoreboard as the Crows are going to have a crowd around Brown to try to stop his influence.
The Good News: Leuenberger looked like a skinny Dean Cox last week.
The Bad News: It doesn't get any easier for them next week, they play Geelong.
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 14 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: The Bulldogs have a lot of players who will trouble the Hawks, but Hawthorn has the big players up forward and the Bulldogs can't stop all of them.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....West, Boyd and Cross dominate the stoppages.
The Good News: They are going to have a high draft, much higher than they would have expected, and they could traded that for the veteran talls that they need to contend in 2008.
The Bad News: Street is hurt so they are back to their short ruckmen again.
Hawthorn
They win if....Sewell stops one of the Bulldogs' midfield stars.
The Good News: Vandenberg could be back.
The Bad News: The last 60 seconds against the Power were not very good.
Geelong v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Geelong by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Joel Corey
Chance For An Upset: It is a battle of the two top sides, and Geelong can afford to take it easy while the Power need to win to stay in second spot, but playing in Geelong should be enough for the Cats to get the win.
Geelong
They win if....Nathan Ablett kicks a few goals.
The Good News: Harley has been a very important player this year, and his onfield performance has exceeded expectations.
The Bad News: The finals are still a couple of weeks away.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Lade and C Cornes go forward a lot, the Cats might not have enough height in the back line to stop them and Westhoff, Tredrea and also Ebert who plays tall.
The Good News: Motlop kicked a very important goal in Tasmania last week, as did Ebert.
The Bad News: The Lade contract talk seems to be a concern there, but it is unlikely that he leaves the Power.
Essendon v Richmond
The Tip: Essendon by 60 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Stanton
Chance For An Upset: It seems that only one team is appearing for this match, so Essendon will be the pick to win.
Essendon
They win if....they pay attention to Deledio and Richardson, if they have quiet games then the Tigers won't roar.
The Good News: Hille should be back, which will mean the Bombers will always have a giant on the field against Richmond's smaller ruckmen.
The Bad News: They have to beat the Eagles in Perth for any chance at the finals.
Richmond
They win if....they don't play Schulz, there is no way he does what he did in the VFL last week.
The Good News: The Polak trade was something that did work for them this year.
The Bad News: It has been an ugly season.
The Tip: St Kilda by 30 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Fisher
Chance For An Upset: This game is supposed to be close, but people are not sure who will have the advantage until the teams are announced just before the game. Maybe a few Eagles don't play and the Saints might get the win at dome.
St Kilda
They win if....Gehrig has another good game, which will be tough to do against Glass.
The Good News: Koschitzke is back, he was very important last time they played West Coast.
The Bad News: Harvey misses, they can't replace him.
West Coast
They win if....they put the side that they named on the field.
The Good News: Lynch is kicking goals, the Eagles are a much better team when he stays close to goal, although for Lynch he can be 60m out and still close to goal.
The Bad News: Hunter and Staker provided extra forward firepower last round, but they might have to play as defenders this time due to the Saints and their plethora of tall forwards.
Carlton v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 99 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Corey Jones
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos have every reason to win, the Blues have plenty of reasons not to win, the Kangaroos have to get the win here.
Carlton
They win if....Mr Kennedy plays at full forward, they picked him high up in the draft but even the new coach doesn't play him. Maybe Kennedy out and Lappin in is good for the draft picks. Kennedy is an emergency, so they might shock the Kangaroos and bring him into the side.
The Good News: Hampson plays his first game, another high draft pick although he is a lot more of a project than Mr Kennedy, Hampson will bring some extra height up forward and should get ruck minutes too.
The Bad News: They seem to be signing all their players, it doesn't make sense to keep trying the same thing and expecting better results.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie and Hale start in the forward line, Carlton don't have the height to contain them.
The Good News: Harris is getting a lot of the ball, it is the players like him who will be important during the tough finals games.
The Bad News: It has not been a good month, and by losing to other top 8 teams it shows that the Kangaroos are not as close as they thought.
Fremantle v Melbourne
The Tip: Fremantle by 61 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Maybe Melbourne win next week, as the Dockers have home ground advantage and most of their players available.
Fremantle
They win if....They start with Warnock using his reach to combat White, and then bring on Gilmore after a few minutes who should be able to keep up with White and even run off him at times.
The Good News: Headland returns, giving them more options in the forward line.
The Bad News: No matter what happens in the final couple of weeks, the Dockers' season has been a disaster.
Melbourne
They win if....they have the same team that the Herald Sun newspaper mistakenly printed, with two Jeff Whites, two Brocks and even a couple of versions of Nathan Jones.
The Good News: Bruce returns, they need him out there as he causes a lot of problems for opposition teams.
The Bad News: They had six forced changes due to injuries, Melbourne should lead the teams and ask for larger player lists, maybe their new coach will get that to happen.
Collingwood v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Adam Goodes
Chance For An Upset: This game should provide plenty of surprises, and picking a winner is tough, but with Fraser out again it does mean the Swans have a huge advantage with their two star ruckmen.
Collingwood
They win if....Buckley gets close to the stats he had last week.
The Good News: Wakelin has played a lot better than most expected this season, although this will be one of his bigger tests.
The Bad News: Richards and Bryan are solid backup players, one of them is good at stoppages while the other can be a forward option, but Fraser can do both those things and the Magpies can struggle without his presence.
Sydney
They win if....Hall kicks goals, he got the ball last round which was a step in the right direction but then when he kicked for goal he sent it in the wrong direction.
The Good News: Goodes is finishing the season a lot better than he played in the early months.
The Bad News: If they had won last week they would be in the top 4 now.
Adelaide v Brisbane
The Tip: Adelaide by 23 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Graham Johncock
Chance For An Upset: Both teams have plenty to play for, and despite having some poor months during the season they can still play in the finals. The home ground might get the Crows the win.
Adelaide
They win if....they use a couple of forwards as defensive players to stop the run of Adcock and Drummond.
The Good News: Ricciuto is playing, he probably has a few more hits left in him.
The Bad News: It's another season for the Crows that has been ruined by injuries.
Brisbane
They win if....Clark or Brennan contribute on the scoreboard as the Crows are going to have a crowd around Brown to try to stop his influence.
The Good News: Leuenberger looked like a skinny Dean Cox last week.
The Bad News: It doesn't get any easier for them next week, they play Geelong.
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 14 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: The Bulldogs have a lot of players who will trouble the Hawks, but Hawthorn has the big players up forward and the Bulldogs can't stop all of them.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....West, Boyd and Cross dominate the stoppages.
The Good News: They are going to have a high draft, much higher than they would have expected, and they could traded that for the veteran talls that they need to contend in 2008.
The Bad News: Street is hurt so they are back to their short ruckmen again.
Hawthorn
They win if....Sewell stops one of the Bulldogs' midfield stars.
The Good News: Vandenberg could be back.
The Bad News: The last 60 seconds against the Power were not very good.
Geelong v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Geelong by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Joel Corey
Chance For An Upset: It is a battle of the two top sides, and Geelong can afford to take it easy while the Power need to win to stay in second spot, but playing in Geelong should be enough for the Cats to get the win.
Geelong
They win if....Nathan Ablett kicks a few goals.
The Good News: Harley has been a very important player this year, and his onfield performance has exceeded expectations.
The Bad News: The finals are still a couple of weeks away.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Lade and C Cornes go forward a lot, the Cats might not have enough height in the back line to stop them and Westhoff, Tredrea and also Ebert who plays tall.
The Good News: Motlop kicked a very important goal in Tasmania last week, as did Ebert.
The Bad News: The Lade contract talk seems to be a concern there, but it is unlikely that he leaves the Power.
Essendon v Richmond
The Tip: Essendon by 60 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Stanton
Chance For An Upset: It seems that only one team is appearing for this match, so Essendon will be the pick to win.
Essendon
They win if....they pay attention to Deledio and Richardson, if they have quiet games then the Tigers won't roar.
The Good News: Hille should be back, which will mean the Bombers will always have a giant on the field against Richmond's smaller ruckmen.
The Bad News: They have to beat the Eagles in Perth for any chance at the finals.
Richmond
They win if....they don't play Schulz, there is no way he does what he did in the VFL last week.
The Good News: The Polak trade was something that did work for them this year.
The Bad News: It has been an ugly season.
