AFL Round 17 Preview
Western Bulldogs v West Coast
The Tip: West Coast by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Quinten Lynch
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles had a bad month on the field before defeating the Swans, not that it didn't get close at the end of the game. If Judd and Cousins do miss it could alter things a lot. The Bulldogs going very short in the ruck is a different strategy. Either Darcy plays his best game in the last five years or the Bulldogs get a big loss.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Tiller is the big forward they have been looking for, he has spent a lot of time in the VFL reserves this year so the Eagles probably won't know a lot about him.
The Good News: Everitt and Williams look to have big futures, and are helping the short Bulldogs now too.
The Bad News: It seemed that the Bulldogs midfield would be built around Minson or Street, they have tried both this year but are now going in a different direction.
West Coast
They win if....Dean Cox wins more hitouts than the Bulldogs.
The Good News: Hansen is back and giving them that extra tall target that they need.
The Bad News: They are not going to get the crowd support that they got last week.
Carlton v St Kilda
The Tip: St Kilda by 60 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Robert Harvey
Chance For An Upset: The first game with a new coach, Carlton must be expecting a win. Koschitzke is out for the Saints so that is another thing that helps Carlton. Fevola was said to be injured but that was apparently a mistake and he will play. The bigger, stronger onballers for the Saints should be the deciding factor.
Carlton
They win if....Gibbs is in the middle and goes for over 30 possessions.
The Good News: They were losing all the time with Coach Pagan, they can't do any worse without him.
The Bad News: Pagan will get more money not to coach than many people will make in their lives.
St Kilda
They win if....Old Clarke uses his height and veteran smarts in the ruck.
The Good News: The back line is providing a lot of attack and run.
The Bad News: Koschitzke is out, suspended for one week.
Fremantle v Geelong
The Tip: Fremantle by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke McPharlin
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers have won every game under Coach Harvey, and this one is a home game too. Maybe the loss of Chapman will see Geelong record a loss, something they haven't done in a long time.
Fremantle
They win if....Headland and Solomon kick goals.
The Good News: With a win last week they are still a chance, although a very small chance, of playing in the finals.
The Bad News: Jeff Farmer.
Geelong
They win if....Wojcinski and others can take advantage of the big spaces on Subiaco.
The Good News: Scarlett returns, he wasn't needed against the smaller Bulldogs but against Fremantle he will have to stop a big forward like Pavlich or Tarrant.
The Bad News: Chapman is out, it could be argued that he is Geelong's best player, or at least their toughest.
Collingwood v Brisbane
The Tip: Collingwood by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dale Thomas
Chance For An Upset: The Lions have been unstoppable recently, their new forward structure is providing more scorers and more space for Brown. It could be a very close game.
Collingwood
They win if....Prestigiacomo gets some help against big Brown.
The Good News: It might be cold and windy, and the Magpies might benefit as they are more used to those conditions.
The Bad News: Buckley is still a long way away from playing.
Brisbane
They win if....players like Copeland and Brennan continue to provide options in the forward line.
The Good News: Hooper was kicking goals last week.
The Bad News: Collingwood were too good for them last time they met.
Sydney v Richmond
The Tip: Sydney by 120 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jude Bolton
Chance For An Upset: If Sydney don't win this their season might be over, so they just have to win.
Sydney
They win if....they are able to cover for the loss of Barry.
The Good News: Hall back at full forward and Kennelly returning to the back line will mean a much better Sydney performance.
The Bad News: They are playing after a trip to the West last week.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds has a huge game.
The Good News: Jack Riewoldt is their most exciting player and he is finally being unleashed.
The Bad News: The people in power there are not trying to get Sheedy to coach them, he would improve everything and would bring a winning tradition as well as the idea that recruiting with height is the best way to go.
Hawthorn v Kangaroos
The Tip: Hawthorn by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Mitchell
Chance For An Upset: Home island advantage should be enough for Hawthorn to get the win, although some of the Kangaroos would have played for Tasmania in the VFL.
Hawthorn
They win if....they find some extra pace and Bateman and Crawford might expose a problem that the Kangaroos have.
The Good News: Thorp could be playing, and it would be in front of his home crowd.
The Bad News: They can have trouble with tall forwards, like Riewoldt and Gehrig, so the Kangaroos could trouble them.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie is too big for Croad.
The Good News: They are in second spot, nobody predicted that.
The Bad News: Their next four games are very difficult.
Essendon v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Burton
Chance For An Upset: Essendon don't really get the advantage of a game with a new coach as Sheedy will stay until the end of the year.
Essendon
They win if....they use their tall forward line effectively and expose Adelaide's back line.
The Good News: Gumbleton will play his first game, he was the second overall pick in the recent AFL draft.
The Bad News: The removal of the coach was never going to be an easy task and they didn't do it in the best way.
Adelaide
They win if....their veteran midfielders control the game so Goodwin, Edwards, Thompson and McLeod will need to be at their best.
The Good News: Burton was very good last week and he gives them something extra in the forward line.
The Bad News: They are again without their important big defenders.
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 98 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Warren Tredrea
Chance For An Upset: Melbourne have made some odd team changes for this week so it looks like they will have little chance at the win. But as Mark Webber actually finished a race it showed that anything is possible, although he still didn't win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they rule the hitouts when White goes to the bench for a rest, Jamar isn't close to Lade or Brogan as a ruckman.
The Good News: A win here and the finals are nearly locked up.
The Bad News: Everything is going along very well, although sometimes their crowd numbers don't reflect that, but they make plenty of noise anyway.
Melbourne
They win if....they double-team the Cornes family.
The Good News: Nathan Jones continues to play like Paul Chapman, which means he is nearly "Nathan Chapman" although that wouldn't work as that name has already been used in AFL.
The Bad News: They dropped Johnson and Johnson, they are both young players who should have been in the side to finish the year.
The Tip: West Coast by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Quinten Lynch
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles had a bad month on the field before defeating the Swans, not that it didn't get close at the end of the game. If Judd and Cousins do miss it could alter things a lot. The Bulldogs going very short in the ruck is a different strategy. Either Darcy plays his best game in the last five years or the Bulldogs get a big loss.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Tiller is the big forward they have been looking for, he has spent a lot of time in the VFL reserves this year so the Eagles probably won't know a lot about him.
The Good News: Everitt and Williams look to have big futures, and are helping the short Bulldogs now too.
The Bad News: It seemed that the Bulldogs midfield would be built around Minson or Street, they have tried both this year but are now going in a different direction.
West Coast
They win if....Dean Cox wins more hitouts than the Bulldogs.
The Good News: Hansen is back and giving them that extra tall target that they need.
The Bad News: They are not going to get the crowd support that they got last week.
Carlton v St Kilda
The Tip: St Kilda by 60 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Robert Harvey
Chance For An Upset: The first game with a new coach, Carlton must be expecting a win. Koschitzke is out for the Saints so that is another thing that helps Carlton. Fevola was said to be injured but that was apparently a mistake and he will play. The bigger, stronger onballers for the Saints should be the deciding factor.
Carlton
They win if....Gibbs is in the middle and goes for over 30 possessions.
The Good News: They were losing all the time with Coach Pagan, they can't do any worse without him.
The Bad News: Pagan will get more money not to coach than many people will make in their lives.
St Kilda
They win if....Old Clarke uses his height and veteran smarts in the ruck.
The Good News: The back line is providing a lot of attack and run.
The Bad News: Koschitzke is out, suspended for one week.
Fremantle v Geelong
The Tip: Fremantle by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Luke McPharlin
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers have won every game under Coach Harvey, and this one is a home game too. Maybe the loss of Chapman will see Geelong record a loss, something they haven't done in a long time.
Fremantle
They win if....Headland and Solomon kick goals.
The Good News: With a win last week they are still a chance, although a very small chance, of playing in the finals.
The Bad News: Jeff Farmer.
Geelong
They win if....Wojcinski and others can take advantage of the big spaces on Subiaco.
The Good News: Scarlett returns, he wasn't needed against the smaller Bulldogs but against Fremantle he will have to stop a big forward like Pavlich or Tarrant.
The Bad News: Chapman is out, it could be argued that he is Geelong's best player, or at least their toughest.
Collingwood v Brisbane
The Tip: Collingwood by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dale Thomas
Chance For An Upset: The Lions have been unstoppable recently, their new forward structure is providing more scorers and more space for Brown. It could be a very close game.
Collingwood
They win if....Prestigiacomo gets some help against big Brown.
The Good News: It might be cold and windy, and the Magpies might benefit as they are more used to those conditions.
The Bad News: Buckley is still a long way away from playing.
Brisbane
They win if....players like Copeland and Brennan continue to provide options in the forward line.
The Good News: Hooper was kicking goals last week.
The Bad News: Collingwood were too good for them last time they met.
Sydney v Richmond
The Tip: Sydney by 120 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jude Bolton
Chance For An Upset: If Sydney don't win this their season might be over, so they just have to win.
Sydney
They win if....they are able to cover for the loss of Barry.
The Good News: Hall back at full forward and Kennelly returning to the back line will mean a much better Sydney performance.
The Bad News: They are playing after a trip to the West last week.
Richmond
They win if....Simmonds has a huge game.
The Good News: Jack Riewoldt is their most exciting player and he is finally being unleashed.
The Bad News: The people in power there are not trying to get Sheedy to coach them, he would improve everything and would bring a winning tradition as well as the idea that recruiting with height is the best way to go.
Hawthorn v Kangaroos
The Tip: Hawthorn by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Mitchell
Chance For An Upset: Home island advantage should be enough for Hawthorn to get the win, although some of the Kangaroos would have played for Tasmania in the VFL.
Hawthorn
They win if....they find some extra pace and Bateman and Crawford might expose a problem that the Kangaroos have.
The Good News: Thorp could be playing, and it would be in front of his home crowd.
The Bad News: They can have trouble with tall forwards, like Riewoldt and Gehrig, so the Kangaroos could trouble them.
Kangaroos
They win if....Petrie is too big for Croad.
The Good News: They are in second spot, nobody predicted that.
The Bad News: Their next four games are very difficult.
Essendon v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Burton
Chance For An Upset: Essendon don't really get the advantage of a game with a new coach as Sheedy will stay until the end of the year.
Essendon
They win if....they use their tall forward line effectively and expose Adelaide's back line.
The Good News: Gumbleton will play his first game, he was the second overall pick in the recent AFL draft.
The Bad News: The removal of the coach was never going to be an easy task and they didn't do it in the best way.
Adelaide
They win if....their veteran midfielders control the game so Goodwin, Edwards, Thompson and McLeod will need to be at their best.
The Good News: Burton was very good last week and he gives them something extra in the forward line.
The Bad News: They are again without their important big defenders.
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 98 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Warren Tredrea
Chance For An Upset: Melbourne have made some odd team changes for this week so it looks like they will have little chance at the win. But as Mark Webber actually finished a race it showed that anything is possible, although he still didn't win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they rule the hitouts when White goes to the bench for a rest, Jamar isn't close to Lade or Brogan as a ruckman.
The Good News: A win here and the finals are nearly locked up.
The Bad News: Everything is going along very well, although sometimes their crowd numbers don't reflect that, but they make plenty of noise anyway.
Melbourne
They win if....they double-team the Cornes family.
The Good News: Nathan Jones continues to play like Paul Chapman, which means he is nearly "Nathan Chapman" although that wouldn't work as that name has already been used in AFL.
The Bad News: They dropped Johnson and Johnson, they are both young players who should have been in the side to finish the year.
