AFL Round 16 Preview
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Geelong keep getting it done and they are the favourites again, but the Bulldogs defeated them at the start of the year and Ernie Sigley says that the Bulldogs "will shred the Cats" so maybe the Cats lose.
Geelong
They win if....they can find someone to stop Brad Johnson.
The Good News: Taking into account their percentage, the Cats are effectively three games ahead of the rest of the AFL.
The Bad News: The other Ablett isn't ready to return from injury.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Street is able to dominate the hitouts against the tag-team of Ottens and Blake.
The Good News: West should be back in the middle after missing last week.
The Bad News: If they lose they could drop out of the 8.
Collingwood v Essendon
The Tip: Essendon by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dustin Fletcher
Chance For An Upset: Collingwood upset Essendon earlier in the year, maybe Essendon get the upset win this time. They have Fletcher and McVeigh back, and Bolton and Bradley may not be playing in this game, although they are emergencies.
Collingwood
They win if....O'Brien can again have an outstanding game against Lucas.
The Good News: Prestigiacomo returns, and he will be important as the Bombers could play Laycock as a forward.
The Bad News: Medhurst and Bryan were dropped, while they have contributed in some games they have not been able to get a regular spot in the team after joining Collingwood in the offseason.
Essendon
They win if....defenders like Fletcher and McPhee get in the space in front of Rocca and Cloke.
The Good News: Two of their best players this season, Fletcher and McVeigh, return from their one week tribunal holiday.
The Bad News: The coaching changes are starting to happen and Essendon has a big decision to make very soon.
Adelaide v Fremantle
The Tip: Adelaide by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers do have the advantage that many teams win with a new coach, and the Crows are without Ricciuto and Rutten too, but the Crows at home should get it done.
Adelaide
They win if....they use McPharlin's opponent as a decoy and drag him away from the goal-square.
The Good News: Pavlich might play a lot more games in Adelaide.
The Bad News: The trend continues, lots of injuries and not many goals.
Fremantle
They win if....they play faster than they have been, the Dockers have looked slow this season.
The Good News: They still have most of the players that were within a game of last season's AFL Grand Final.
The Bad News: 13th position, nobody picked them to finish where they currently are.
St Kilda v Hawthorn
The Tip: St Kilda by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: It's a game where St Kilda has dome ground advantage, so it could be close. Riewoldt and Gehrig at one end, Franklin and Roughead at the other, there should be plenty of goals this time.
St Kilda
They win if....Koschitzke can dominate in the ruck, Campbell and Taylor have been very effective this season but Koschitzke has the talent to get the better of them.
The Good News: Apart from Goddard, the Saints have all their defenders back now with Hudghton returning.
The Bad News: They can't afford to lose this game if they are to sneak into the finals.
Hawthorn
They win if....their Luke from the 2001 draft has a better game than the Saints' Luke.
The Good News: The Hawks keep rolling out the stars, Thorp played his first game last week and is in the side for this game.
The Bad News: Their tall defenders are going to have a big test in the perfect conditions.
West Coast v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Leo Barry
Chance For An Upset: People are predicting a win by the Eagles, although they did that when they played the Saints and Lions too. Probably a game to expect the unexpected, and a more settled Swans team might get the win.
West Coast
They win if....Hansen plays, he is their good luck charm and he is named to play.
The Good News: Judd should be there, and a Judd at 50% is still better than most other players.
The Bad News: A loss here and a top 4 finish might slip away.
Sydney
They win if....Hall ignores the umpires and gets goals, not gives away frees.
The Good News: The Swans had a big win last round.
The Bad News: Everitt and Jolly will have much tougher opposition than they did last week.
Brisbane v Carlton
The Tip: Brisbane by 95 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jonathan Brown
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are playing some of the best football in the AFL right now, Carlton are chasing the number 1 pick, the Lions should win and win big.
Brisbane
They win if....Merrett can keep up with Fevola, if he does play on the Carlton full forward.
The Good News: Brennan struggled as a forward when he entered the league, he is doing much better now after being given another chance up forward.
The Bad News: Their draw against Richmond might end up being the reason that they just miss out on the finals.
Carlton
They win if....they double-team Brown, or maybe even triple-team him.
The Good News: Waite continues his solid year, he was at full back last week and may get that job again.
The Bad News: They travel interstate for the second week in a row.
Richmond v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 12 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Shaun Burgoyne
Chance For An Upset: The Tigers might give the Power a scare, but they don't have the talent in the midfield that the Power have.
Richmond
They win if....Bowden plays forward, and feeds Richardson instead of just getting 20 kicks in the back line.
The Good News: It's Riewoldt, maybe, he is a possible inclusion at this time.
The Bad News: It's still a big wait until the draft, when Richmond's fortunes will turn around.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they are anywhere near as good as they were last week.
The Good News: Westhoff received the latest Rising Star nomination.
The Bad News: If they lose this game it will undo all the great work they have done in recent weeks.
Kangaroos v Melbourne
The Tip: Kangaroos by 15 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brent Harvey
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos are playing after a game last week in WA, although that won't matter as the Demons were also away for their home game last week. Whenever Neitz is there the Demons are a chance but they need a bit more than that as the Kangaroos are playing well.
Kangaroos
They win if....the Kangaroos park Petrie in the forward line again and he takes advantage of the smaller Melbourne defenders.
The Good News: Firrito has really established himself as a quality defender in the AFL.
The Bad News: The coach's contract seems to be a distraction.
Melbourne
They win if....Miller has a big game down back, and Dunn does the same up forward.
The Good News: Their coach has a 50% winning record.
The Bad News: They should probably give Pickett one more game, it would have made sense to play him in this one.
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Johnson
Chance For An Upset: Geelong keep getting it done and they are the favourites again, but the Bulldogs defeated them at the start of the year and Ernie Sigley says that the Bulldogs "will shred the Cats" so maybe the Cats lose.
Geelong
They win if....they can find someone to stop Brad Johnson.
The Good News: Taking into account their percentage, the Cats are effectively three games ahead of the rest of the AFL.
The Bad News: The other Ablett isn't ready to return from injury.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Street is able to dominate the hitouts against the tag-team of Ottens and Blake.
The Good News: West should be back in the middle after missing last week.
The Bad News: If they lose they could drop out of the 8.
Collingwood v Essendon
The Tip: Essendon by 24 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dustin Fletcher
Chance For An Upset: Collingwood upset Essendon earlier in the year, maybe Essendon get the upset win this time. They have Fletcher and McVeigh back, and Bolton and Bradley may not be playing in this game, although they are emergencies.
Collingwood
They win if....O'Brien can again have an outstanding game against Lucas.
The Good News: Prestigiacomo returns, and he will be important as the Bombers could play Laycock as a forward.
The Bad News: Medhurst and Bryan were dropped, while they have contributed in some games they have not been able to get a regular spot in the team after joining Collingwood in the offseason.
Essendon
They win if....defenders like Fletcher and McPhee get in the space in front of Rocca and Cloke.
The Good News: Two of their best players this season, Fletcher and McVeigh, return from their one week tribunal holiday.
The Bad News: The coaching changes are starting to happen and Essendon has a big decision to make very soon.
Adelaide v Fremantle
The Tip: Adelaide by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ben Hudson
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers do have the advantage that many teams win with a new coach, and the Crows are without Ricciuto and Rutten too, but the Crows at home should get it done.
Adelaide
They win if....they use McPharlin's opponent as a decoy and drag him away from the goal-square.
The Good News: Pavlich might play a lot more games in Adelaide.
The Bad News: The trend continues, lots of injuries and not many goals.
Fremantle
They win if....they play faster than they have been, the Dockers have looked slow this season.
The Good News: They still have most of the players that were within a game of last season's AFL Grand Final.
The Bad News: 13th position, nobody picked them to finish where they currently are.
St Kilda v Hawthorn
The Tip: St Kilda by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: It's a game where St Kilda has dome ground advantage, so it could be close. Riewoldt and Gehrig at one end, Franklin and Roughead at the other, there should be plenty of goals this time.
St Kilda
They win if....Koschitzke can dominate in the ruck, Campbell and Taylor have been very effective this season but Koschitzke has the talent to get the better of them.
The Good News: Apart from Goddard, the Saints have all their defenders back now with Hudghton returning.
The Bad News: They can't afford to lose this game if they are to sneak into the finals.
Hawthorn
They win if....their Luke from the 2001 draft has a better game than the Saints' Luke.
The Good News: The Hawks keep rolling out the stars, Thorp played his first game last week and is in the side for this game.
The Bad News: Their tall defenders are going to have a big test in the perfect conditions.
West Coast v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Leo Barry
Chance For An Upset: People are predicting a win by the Eagles, although they did that when they played the Saints and Lions too. Probably a game to expect the unexpected, and a more settled Swans team might get the win.
West Coast
They win if....Hansen plays, he is their good luck charm and he is named to play.
The Good News: Judd should be there, and a Judd at 50% is still better than most other players.
The Bad News: A loss here and a top 4 finish might slip away.
Sydney
They win if....Hall ignores the umpires and gets goals, not gives away frees.
The Good News: The Swans had a big win last round.
The Bad News: Everitt and Jolly will have much tougher opposition than they did last week.
Brisbane v Carlton
The Tip: Brisbane by 95 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jonathan Brown
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are playing some of the best football in the AFL right now, Carlton are chasing the number 1 pick, the Lions should win and win big.
Brisbane
They win if....Merrett can keep up with Fevola, if he does play on the Carlton full forward.
The Good News: Brennan struggled as a forward when he entered the league, he is doing much better now after being given another chance up forward.
The Bad News: Their draw against Richmond might end up being the reason that they just miss out on the finals.
Carlton
They win if....they double-team Brown, or maybe even triple-team him.
The Good News: Waite continues his solid year, he was at full back last week and may get that job again.
The Bad News: They travel interstate for the second week in a row.
Richmond v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 12 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Shaun Burgoyne
Chance For An Upset: The Tigers might give the Power a scare, but they don't have the talent in the midfield that the Power have.
Richmond
They win if....Bowden plays forward, and feeds Richardson instead of just getting 20 kicks in the back line.
The Good News: It's Riewoldt, maybe, he is a possible inclusion at this time.
The Bad News: It's still a big wait until the draft, when Richmond's fortunes will turn around.
Port Adelaide
They win if....they are anywhere near as good as they were last week.
The Good News: Westhoff received the latest Rising Star nomination.
The Bad News: If they lose this game it will undo all the great work they have done in recent weeks.
Kangaroos v Melbourne
The Tip: Kangaroos by 15 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brent Harvey
Chance For An Upset: The Kangaroos are playing after a game last week in WA, although that won't matter as the Demons were also away for their home game last week. Whenever Neitz is there the Demons are a chance but they need a bit more than that as the Kangaroos are playing well.
Kangaroos
They win if....the Kangaroos park Petrie in the forward line again and he takes advantage of the smaller Melbourne defenders.
The Good News: Firrito has really established himself as a quality defender in the AFL.
The Bad News: The coach's contract seems to be a distraction.
Melbourne
They win if....Miller has a big game down back, and Dunn does the same up forward.
The Good News: Their coach has a 50% winning record.
The Bad News: They should probably give Pickett one more game, it would have made sense to play him in this one.
