AFL Round 15 Preview
St Kilda v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: The Saints won against the Eagles in Perth so they can beat anyone, but they have also shown the ability to lose to anyone too. They do have home ground advantage and some big forwards who could trouble the Crows.
St Kilda
They win if....they can find a medium-sized forward option who can kick a few goals as the Crows concentrate on Gehrig and Koschitzke.
The Good News: Maguire should solidify their back line after returning last week.
The Bad News: Hamill spends a lot of time talking to medical staff and not playing football.
Adelaide
They win if....some of their more lumbering forwards can stop the Saints defenders running from the back line with the ball.
The Good News: They were not harmed by the loss of Bassett last round.
The Bad News: Port Adelaide are willing to throw everything they have to get Pavlich, the Crows are very interested but have indicated they won't overpay too much.
Geelong v Collingwood
The Tip: Collingwood by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Anthony Rocca
Chance For An Upset: Geelong will be the favourite, unless Gary Ablett does miss with an illness. Collingwood have been winning the big games this season and they might do it again on the MCG.
Geelong
They win if....they have a big enough body to contain Rocca.
The Good News: The Cats have decided that they won't be handing out new contracts until the season is over, this should keep everyone playing, and coaching, at their best.
The Bad News: Max Rooke is off to Germany, while it has been reported that he is going there for help with his hamstring injury, there must also be the chance he is following David Hasselhoff and going there to launch a singing career. That would explain why he previously changed his name to Max.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser pushes forward, and that could be why Bryan has also been included this week.
The Good News: Thomas provides excitement every week, and often kicks goals at the most important times.
The Bad News: Victoria Park is one dilapidated place, even though they have moved away it might be nice if they could spend some of their vast resources and fix it up a bit, there could be times when they need to train there in the future.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Chad Cornes
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles are considered to be the favourites, and they won last time when they went to Adelaide to play. They might have too many injuries, and the Power have the players to compete with Dean Cox.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Lade and Brogan play to their usual standard, they have been a bit down in form recently.
The Good News: Pearce is named, so that was a quick recovery from his surgery.
The Bad News: Wakelin was hurt in the SANFL, and will be unavailable for a couple of weeks.
West Coast
They win if....someone like Hurn or Armstrong kick more goals than expected.
The Good News: Priddis keeps accumulating the possessions, he has kept their midfield going despite a lot of suspensions and injuries.
The Bad News: They lost to Brisbane last week.
Essendon v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Akermanis
Chance For An Upset: It is one team without a lot of star players going up against another team missing a lot of their best players. The Bulldogs should win but if Essendon can keep it close then they could snatch it at the end of the game because they are experts at that.
Essendon
They win if....they effectively out-height the Bulldogs with Lloyd, Lucas, Laycock and Lovett-Murray up forward.
The Good News: Stanton is their engine in the middle that powers the side, he returns for this game.
The Bad News: Suspensions mean Fletcher and McVeigh will miss this contest, and both those players are close to being All-Australians this season.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....someone pretends they are West for this game, Boyd has taken on the role of Cross but West is a harder player to replace.
The Good News: Chris Grant is named, and he will be very important if he plays, they do have tall Wight listed as an emergency.
The Bad News: The Bulldogs are in a precarious situation, and they can't afford to lose this game because they could drop out of the top 8.
Melbourne v Brisbane
The Tip: Brisbane by 5 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tim Notting
Chance For An Upset: The Lions won away in Perth, now they play away in Brisbane. They should have too much offensive firepower and the Demons are without Neitz at the other end too.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White is at his bouncing best for hitouts, and then runs away from Charman around the ground.
The Good News: Their only in is Bruce and he can win a match by himself.
The Bad News: They won last week in part because of a coach being in charge for his first game with a club, they don't have any good luck charm this game, especially as it is played in Brisbane.
Brisbane
They win if....their forward line has the spacing and variety that it did last week.
The Good News: Leuenberger looks to be a very good prospect.
The Bad News: They are probably out of the running for a finals spot and also for the top draft picks.
Sydney v Carlton
The Tip: Sydney by 85 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ryan O'Keefe
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are going to play a center half forward and a full back in the ruck against Jolly and Everitt, that won't help their chances.
Sydney
They win if....they use their experience and strength against the younger Carlton onballers.
The Good News: Hall is named to play, and LRT may be A-OK.
The Bad News: They have as many losses as they do wins, although their percentage is very good and might get some more help here.
Carlton
They win if....Fevola forgets about his restaurant, his boots and his media profile and actually kicks 10 goals.
The Good News: The first pick in the draft is very close.
The Bad News: They drafted a couple of ruckmen who are 200cm or more in height, yet they don't play them.
Hawthorn v Richmond
The Tip: Hawthorn by 29 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Mitchell
Chance For An Upset: Deledio's injury makes this an even tougher game for the Tigers, but if they can get on top in the ruck and their players can feed Richardson the ball they could make it a close game.
Hawthorn
They win if....they assign a forward to stay close to Polak, they can’t let him run around cutting off passes to their forwards.
The Good News: Thorp might be playing, in some ways he is more promising than Franklin, which means he could be very good.
The Bad News: When they lose, they can sometimes lose in a big way, like last week.
Richmond
They win if....they have intelligent matchups in the back line, it isn't fair to ask Raines to play against the big forwards of the AFL.
The Good News: King is one of the bright parts of their season, it looked like he was too small to play a big part but he just keeps getting the ball.
The Bad News: Their coach says they are not losing on purpose, so that might indicate that winning is really far away if they are trying as hard as they can now.
Fremantle v Kangaroos
The Tip: Fremantle by 34 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers win at home and lose away, so they might continue that here.
Fremantle
They win if....they play a smart game with their big forwards Pavlich, Tarrant and Murphy and exploit a mismatch by isolating the right player in the goal-square.
The Good News: There is a lot of WA talent available in the draft.
The Bad News: They are one loss away from the team imploding.
Kangaroos
They win if....McIntosh has a big game against a couple of big players, he couldn't do it against Cox on Subiaco earlier in the year.
The Good News: Petrie has been amazing the last couple of weeks.
The Bad News: It is a danger game, and if they want to do anything in September they need to defeat teams below them on the ladder.
The Tip: Adelaide by 55 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: The Saints won against the Eagles in Perth so they can beat anyone, but they have also shown the ability to lose to anyone too. They do have home ground advantage and some big forwards who could trouble the Crows.
St Kilda
They win if....they can find a medium-sized forward option who can kick a few goals as the Crows concentrate on Gehrig and Koschitzke.
The Good News: Maguire should solidify their back line after returning last week.
The Bad News: Hamill spends a lot of time talking to medical staff and not playing football.
Adelaide
They win if....some of their more lumbering forwards can stop the Saints defenders running from the back line with the ball.
The Good News: They were not harmed by the loss of Bassett last round.
The Bad News: Port Adelaide are willing to throw everything they have to get Pavlich, the Crows are very interested but have indicated they won't overpay too much.
Geelong v Collingwood
The Tip: Collingwood by 3 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Anthony Rocca
Chance For An Upset: Geelong will be the favourite, unless Gary Ablett does miss with an illness. Collingwood have been winning the big games this season and they might do it again on the MCG.
Geelong
They win if....they have a big enough body to contain Rocca.
The Good News: The Cats have decided that they won't be handing out new contracts until the season is over, this should keep everyone playing, and coaching, at their best.
The Bad News: Max Rooke is off to Germany, while it has been reported that he is going there for help with his hamstring injury, there must also be the chance he is following David Hasselhoff and going there to launch a singing career. That would explain why he previously changed his name to Max.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser pushes forward, and that could be why Bryan has also been included this week.
The Good News: Thomas provides excitement every week, and often kicks goals at the most important times.
The Bad News: Victoria Park is one dilapidated place, even though they have moved away it might be nice if they could spend some of their vast resources and fix it up a bit, there could be times when they need to train there in the future.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 2 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Chad Cornes
Chance For An Upset: The Eagles are considered to be the favourites, and they won last time when they went to Adelaide to play. They might have too many injuries, and the Power have the players to compete with Dean Cox.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Lade and Brogan play to their usual standard, they have been a bit down in form recently.
The Good News: Pearce is named, so that was a quick recovery from his surgery.
The Bad News: Wakelin was hurt in the SANFL, and will be unavailable for a couple of weeks.
West Coast
They win if....someone like Hurn or Armstrong kick more goals than expected.
The Good News: Priddis keeps accumulating the possessions, he has kept their midfield going despite a lot of suspensions and injuries.
The Bad News: They lost to Brisbane last week.
Essendon v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jason Akermanis
Chance For An Upset: It is one team without a lot of star players going up against another team missing a lot of their best players. The Bulldogs should win but if Essendon can keep it close then they could snatch it at the end of the game because they are experts at that.
Essendon
They win if....they effectively out-height the Bulldogs with Lloyd, Lucas, Laycock and Lovett-Murray up forward.
The Good News: Stanton is their engine in the middle that powers the side, he returns for this game.
The Bad News: Suspensions mean Fletcher and McVeigh will miss this contest, and both those players are close to being All-Australians this season.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....someone pretends they are West for this game, Boyd has taken on the role of Cross but West is a harder player to replace.
The Good News: Chris Grant is named, and he will be very important if he plays, they do have tall Wight listed as an emergency.
The Bad News: The Bulldogs are in a precarious situation, and they can't afford to lose this game because they could drop out of the top 8.
Melbourne v Brisbane
The Tip: Brisbane by 5 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tim Notting
Chance For An Upset: The Lions won away in Perth, now they play away in Brisbane. They should have too much offensive firepower and the Demons are without Neitz at the other end too.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White is at his bouncing best for hitouts, and then runs away from Charman around the ground.
The Good News: Their only in is Bruce and he can win a match by himself.
The Bad News: They won last week in part because of a coach being in charge for his first game with a club, they don't have any good luck charm this game, especially as it is played in Brisbane.
Brisbane
They win if....their forward line has the spacing and variety that it did last week.
The Good News: Leuenberger looks to be a very good prospect.
The Bad News: They are probably out of the running for a finals spot and also for the top draft picks.
Sydney v Carlton
The Tip: Sydney by 85 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ryan O'Keefe
Chance For An Upset: Carlton are going to play a center half forward and a full back in the ruck against Jolly and Everitt, that won't help their chances.
Sydney
They win if....they use their experience and strength against the younger Carlton onballers.
The Good News: Hall is named to play, and LRT may be A-OK.
The Bad News: They have as many losses as they do wins, although their percentage is very good and might get some more help here.
Carlton
They win if....Fevola forgets about his restaurant, his boots and his media profile and actually kicks 10 goals.
The Good News: The first pick in the draft is very close.
The Bad News: They drafted a couple of ruckmen who are 200cm or more in height, yet they don't play them.
Hawthorn v Richmond
The Tip: Hawthorn by 29 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Sam Mitchell
Chance For An Upset: Deledio's injury makes this an even tougher game for the Tigers, but if they can get on top in the ruck and their players can feed Richardson the ball they could make it a close game.
Hawthorn
They win if....they assign a forward to stay close to Polak, they can’t let him run around cutting off passes to their forwards.
The Good News: Thorp might be playing, in some ways he is more promising than Franklin, which means he could be very good.
The Bad News: When they lose, they can sometimes lose in a big way, like last week.
Richmond
They win if....they have intelligent matchups in the back line, it isn't fair to ask Raines to play against the big forwards of the AFL.
The Good News: King is one of the bright parts of their season, it looked like he was too small to play a big part but he just keeps getting the ball.
The Bad News: Their coach says they are not losing on purpose, so that might indicate that winning is really far away if they are trying as hard as they can now.
Fremantle v Kangaroos
The Tip: Fremantle by 34 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Michael Johnson
Chance For An Upset: The Dockers win at home and lose away, so they might continue that here.
Fremantle
They win if....they play a smart game with their big forwards Pavlich, Tarrant and Murphy and exploit a mismatch by isolating the right player in the goal-square.
The Good News: There is a lot of WA talent available in the draft.
The Bad News: They are one loss away from the team imploding.
Kangaroos
They win if....McIntosh has a big game against a couple of big players, he couldn't do it against Cox on Subiaco earlier in the year.
The Good News: Petrie has been amazing the last couple of weeks.
The Bad News: It is a danger game, and if they want to do anything in September they need to defeat teams below them on the ladder.
