AFL Round 14 Preview
Essendon v Geelong
The Tip: Essendon by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott Lucas
Chance For An Upset: Essendon is the upset pick, they do have the milestone of Hird and the return of Ramanauskas to drive them and it worked for Archer last week and Harvey the week before.
Essendon
They win if....Scott Lucas is kicking long goals.
The Good News: Tom Hislop plays his first game.
The Bad News: Lloyd would have been very useful, he is out for a week.
Geelong
They win if....they make Fletcher accountable, Ottens might have to play a smart game and drag Fletcher away from the action.
The Good News: Hawkins returns.
The Bad News: Rooke is out for several weeks.
Collingwood v St Kilda
The Tip: St Kilda by 26 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: The Saints are getting their big stars back while Collingwood are without several of theirs, both teams have been playing well recently so it should be an exciting game.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser is going to get help, right now Bryan is just an emergency and Richards is out of the side.
The Good News: Reid showed last week that he is ready for the AFL.
The Bad News: Rocca might have been the difference.
St Kilda
They win if....they isolate Riewoldt and let him dominate a defender that is probably smaller and less experienced.
The Good News: Maguire and Koschitzke are two very good inclusions.
The Bad News: Hudghton is hurt again.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: This game should be very close, and it might be the team with the big, veteran forward who plays the best that gets the win.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Street has a big game against the powerful Port ruckmen.
The Good News: Everitt is an easy player to recognize, his inclusion will give the coach more options as Everitt is a versatile player.
The Bad News: They can't mark the ball up forward.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Westhoff kicks his usual 3 goals for the game.
The Good News: Their season is back on track following a couple of solid wins.
The Bad News: Pearce is out for at least a couple of weeks.
Adelaide v Hawthorn
The Tip: Adelaide by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Mark Ricciuto
Chance For An Upset: Adelaide are inconsistent so Hawthorn will be very confident.
Adelaide
They win if....they come out ahead in the battle of two hard-working midfields.
The Good News: Porplyzia gave them a target across half forward last week, and Burton should bring more variety to their forward line this time.
The Bad News: A win last week against the Eagles was not only expected but was needed to show that they can win it all this year.
Hawthorn
They win if....whoever is against Rutten takes him out of the goal-square, to disrupt a defensive unit that won't be at their best without Bassett.
The Good News: They could lose nearly all their remaining games and still make the finals.
The Bad News: He is off the Boyle with a hamstring injury.
West Coast v Brisbane
The Tip: West Coast by 58 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Chance For An Upset: One Selwood will be happy, the other will be playing for Brisbane.
West Coast
They win if....they again have some other players marking inside forward 50, like Seaby did last week.
The Good News: They are getting closer to their best side, as Judd returns.
The Bad News: They don't kick very big scores, although it is usually just a bit more than the opposition.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks 10 or more goals.
The Good News: Leuenberger is available, it will be a good test to see if he really is "The Next Dean Cox".
The Bad News: A trip to Perth is usually not the best thing for a struggling team.
Sydney v Fremantle
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Kirk
Chance For An Upset: When these teams last played it was for a spot in the Grand Final, now it could be a battle to see who can make it into the top 8, the home ground should help Sydney get the win.
Sydney
They win if....Hall can mark the ball.
The Good News: Roberts-Thomson might play his first game of the year.
The Bad News: They usually have a height advantage in the ruck, not this time.
Fremantle
They win if....they outwork Sydney in the middle.
The Good News: Tarrant and Sandilands are some big ins for this game.
The Bad News: The Dockers have not been very competitive away from Subiaco this season.
Carlton v Melbourne
The Tip: Melbourne by 44 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Cameron Bruce
Chance For An Upset: Either team winning a game qualifies as an upset, the Demons should have a few extra stars like Bruce, McDonald and White and they should get them the win.
Carlton
They win if....they play as a team, and kick it to Kennedy.
The Good News: Grigg is in the team, he was injured earlier in the year and will make his debut in this game.
The Bad News: Fevola, one week away won't change him.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White has a huge game due to his vast experience advantage over his opponents.
The Good News: Davey started the season with some quiet games but is playing much better now.
The Bad News: Neitz is what the forward line is built around, without him as its foundation it doesn't work very well.
Richmond v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brent Harvey
Chance For An Upset: Richmond are putting a better team out there now, so they should be a chance especially if Simmonds plays and has a big game.
Richmond
They win if....they use Bowden in a more attacking position.
The Good News: Polak continues to play well.
The Bad News: Melbourne are planning for next year, so the Tigers will have to work hard to get Kreuzer.
Kangaroos
They win if....someone else kicks goals this week, Hale or Brown will need to help Petrie this round.
The Good News: Archer didn't just play last week, he played very well around half back. He might be guarding the space in front of Richardson for this game.
The Bad News: This is a danger game for them, and if they do lose games like this they will struggle to make the top 8.
The Tip: Essendon by 13 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott Lucas
Chance For An Upset: Essendon is the upset pick, they do have the milestone of Hird and the return of Ramanauskas to drive them and it worked for Archer last week and Harvey the week before.
Essendon
They win if....Scott Lucas is kicking long goals.
The Good News: Tom Hislop plays his first game.
The Bad News: Lloyd would have been very useful, he is out for a week.
Geelong
They win if....they make Fletcher accountable, Ottens might have to play a smart game and drag Fletcher away from the action.
The Good News: Hawkins returns.
The Bad News: Rooke is out for several weeks.
Collingwood v St Kilda
The Tip: St Kilda by 26 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Nick Riewoldt
Chance For An Upset: The Saints are getting their big stars back while Collingwood are without several of theirs, both teams have been playing well recently so it should be an exciting game.
Collingwood
They win if....Fraser is going to get help, right now Bryan is just an emergency and Richards is out of the side.
The Good News: Reid showed last week that he is ready for the AFL.
The Bad News: Rocca might have been the difference.
St Kilda
They win if....they isolate Riewoldt and let him dominate a defender that is probably smaller and less experienced.
The Good News: Maguire and Koschitzke are two very good inclusions.
The Bad News: Hudghton is hurt again.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: This game should be very close, and it might be the team with the big, veteran forward who plays the best that gets the win.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....Street has a big game against the powerful Port ruckmen.
The Good News: Everitt is an easy player to recognize, his inclusion will give the coach more options as Everitt is a versatile player.
The Bad News: They can't mark the ball up forward.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Westhoff kicks his usual 3 goals for the game.
The Good News: Their season is back on track following a couple of solid wins.
The Bad News: Pearce is out for at least a couple of weeks.
Adelaide v Hawthorn
The Tip: Adelaide by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Mark Ricciuto
Chance For An Upset: Adelaide are inconsistent so Hawthorn will be very confident.
Adelaide
They win if....they come out ahead in the battle of two hard-working midfields.
The Good News: Porplyzia gave them a target across half forward last week, and Burton should bring more variety to their forward line this time.
The Bad News: A win last week against the Eagles was not only expected but was needed to show that they can win it all this year.
Hawthorn
They win if....whoever is against Rutten takes him out of the goal-square, to disrupt a defensive unit that won't be at their best without Bassett.
The Good News: They could lose nearly all their remaining games and still make the finals.
The Bad News: He is off the Boyle with a hamstring injury.
West Coast v Brisbane
The Tip: West Coast by 58 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Chance For An Upset: One Selwood will be happy, the other will be playing for Brisbane.
West Coast
They win if....they again have some other players marking inside forward 50, like Seaby did last week.
The Good News: They are getting closer to their best side, as Judd returns.
The Bad News: They don't kick very big scores, although it is usually just a bit more than the opposition.
Brisbane
They win if....Brown kicks 10 or more goals.
The Good News: Leuenberger is available, it will be a good test to see if he really is "The Next Dean Cox".
The Bad News: A trip to Perth is usually not the best thing for a struggling team.
Sydney v Fremantle
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Kirk
Chance For An Upset: When these teams last played it was for a spot in the Grand Final, now it could be a battle to see who can make it into the top 8, the home ground should help Sydney get the win.
Sydney
They win if....Hall can mark the ball.
The Good News: Roberts-Thomson might play his first game of the year.
The Bad News: They usually have a height advantage in the ruck, not this time.
Fremantle
They win if....they outwork Sydney in the middle.
The Good News: Tarrant and Sandilands are some big ins for this game.
The Bad News: The Dockers have not been very competitive away from Subiaco this season.
Carlton v Melbourne
The Tip: Melbourne by 44 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Cameron Bruce
Chance For An Upset: Either team winning a game qualifies as an upset, the Demons should have a few extra stars like Bruce, McDonald and White and they should get them the win.
Carlton
They win if....they play as a team, and kick it to Kennedy.
The Good News: Grigg is in the team, he was injured earlier in the year and will make his debut in this game.
The Bad News: Fevola, one week away won't change him.
Melbourne
They win if....Jeff White has a huge game due to his vast experience advantage over his opponents.
The Good News: Davey started the season with some quiet games but is playing much better now.
The Bad News: Neitz is what the forward line is built around, without him as its foundation it doesn't work very well.
Richmond v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brent Harvey
Chance For An Upset: Richmond are putting a better team out there now, so they should be a chance especially if Simmonds plays and has a big game.
Richmond
They win if....they use Bowden in a more attacking position.
The Good News: Polak continues to play well.
The Bad News: Melbourne are planning for next year, so the Tigers will have to work hard to get Kreuzer.
Kangaroos
They win if....someone else kicks goals this week, Hale or Brown will need to help Petrie this round.
The Good News: Archer didn't just play last week, he played very well around half back. He might be guarding the space in front of Richardson for this game.
The Bad News: This is a danger game for them, and if they do lose games like this they will struggle to make the top 8.
