AFL Round 12 Preview
Carlton v Hawthorn
The Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: This game should be close but Hawthorn is the favourite. Hawthorn’s midfield group is just a bit older and stronger than Carlton's so that could be the difference. Carlton do have the forward setup to kick a winning score and with a couple of wins in a row they are a good chance to upset Hawthorn.
Carlton
They win if....they don't worry too much about Lance Franklin, he will kick his goals but Carlton can win like Sydney did last week if they limit the chances to Hawthorn's other forwards.
The Good News: Carlton extended the contracts of their Texas Ranger and Mr Kennedy. Andrew Walker and Josh Kennedy were both drafted in the top 5 of their drafts by the Blues.
The Bad News: If Carlton win this game they lose the top spot in the 2007 AFL Draft. That probably is not something that anyone there cares about at the moment.
Hawthorn
They win if....Mitch Thorp plays, although they should get over the line if he isn't a late inclusion.
The Good News: They are third, due to a solid percentage, and finals are nearly guaranteed.
The Bad News: Croad won a game in the first quarter against Carlton last year, but he may not play.
Kangaroos v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Andrew McLeod
Chance For An Upset: A coin-flip game, with the Crows a very slight favourite. The Crows won in Queensland earlier in the season and can do it again. But Wells is back, the Kangaroos will have vocal support and Adelaide have some injury problems so the Kangaroos could get another win.
Adelaide
They win if....they have solved their forward problems, maybe McGregor is part of the solution.
The Good News: While many of their players have gone down with injuries, Ben Hudson is healthy this season and brings a lot of energy and plenty of hitouts.
The Bad News: They are only in the top 8 on percentage.
Kangaroos
They win if....Corey Jones continues his hot streak, he is a difficult player for teams to find the right player to stop him as he can play tall or small.
The Good News: Wells is back from his injury.
The Bad News: Teams might be paying more attention to McIntosh, Hale is again in the team to assist him.
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Peake
Chance For An Upset: People can't decide between these two sides, it is a neutral venue with two very even teams. Each team has a huge ruckman, an athletic back line and a powerful midfield. What the Bulldogs don't have is Pavlich, and that might get Fremantle the win.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they can cover for the loss of Cross and Griffen.
The Good News: They are going with youth and being rewarded, Tom Williams showed he could played last week and now Malcolm Lynch gets his chance.
The Bad News: Luke Darcy is commentating games for Channel 10, it seems a bit odd that he is barely in the Bulldogs' side and they allow him to have this outside distraction.
Fremantle
They win if....Headland gives them a secondary option for goals like he did last week.
The Good News: No players were suspended this week, and Crowley is back in the side after a short break.
The Bad News: If they lose this game, they will lose touch with the teams at the bottom of the top 8.
Geelong v Brisbane
The Tip: Geelong by 23 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Ottens
Chance For An Upset: A Brisbane win would be very unexpected, but this is a chance for Geelong to lose one of the games that they should win. Barassi says he doesn't trust Geelong, so if Brown can get the ball this could be a huge upset.
Geelong
They win if....N Ablett fires, he has been quiet in recent games.
The Good News: They have defeated nearly all the contenders.
The Bad News: The contract extensions are about to be handed out, some of the players who have been inconsistent for a lot of their careers may take the foot off the accelerator after getting a new deal.
Brisbane
They win if....Charman plays as a forward and the Cats don't have enough height to stop him and Brown, and Patfull too.
The Good News: Jonathan Brown will have a lot of local support for this match.
The Bad News: A couple more losses and a season that started off so well will be all but over.
Port Adelaide v Essendon
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Danyle Pearce
Chance For An Upset: Essendon may be the slight favourites here, but home ground advantage and a big milestone game might help the Power get the win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Tredrea contributes, while goals would be good he could be just as effective taking Michael on long leads and marking on the wing.
The Good News: Westhoff is tall, thin but tall. He has kicked a lot of goals in his first two matches.
The Bad News: Their four consecutive losses have seen them drop out of the top 8.
Essendon
They win if....Hille again has a big game against one of the best ruckmen in the AFL.
The Good News: They know how to win close games.
The Bad News: Camporeale has thrown down the gauntlet to Robert Walls, that can't be good.
The tipping competitions want the picks to these games, so here are some wild guesses.
Richmond v Melbourne
The Tip: Melbourne by 44 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brock McLean
Game notes: A month ago it looked like the Tigers would have been favourites for this match, but Melbourne got some players back and have won a couple of games since then. The Demons did go through a patch of close losses before breaking through for their first win, the Tigers have been very close to defeating several teams, like Essendon and Fremantle, so their time to win must be close too.
Sydney v Collingwood
The Tip: Sydney by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ryan O'Keefe
Game notes: The Magpies could be in trouble without O'Brien, Prestigiacomo and Clement. While the Swans will be without Kennelly, LRT could be available.
West Coast v St Kilda
The Tip: West Coast by 62 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Game notes: The Saints are not expected to have a chance, or to have Gehrig available. The Eagles might have Nicoski, Graham, Butler and even that guy who was suspended indefinitely for missing training.
The Tip: Hawthorn by 19 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Lance Franklin
Chance For An Upset: This game should be close but Hawthorn is the favourite. Hawthorn’s midfield group is just a bit older and stronger than Carlton's so that could be the difference. Carlton do have the forward setup to kick a winning score and with a couple of wins in a row they are a good chance to upset Hawthorn.
Carlton
They win if....they don't worry too much about Lance Franklin, he will kick his goals but Carlton can win like Sydney did last week if they limit the chances to Hawthorn's other forwards.
The Good News: Carlton extended the contracts of their Texas Ranger and Mr Kennedy. Andrew Walker and Josh Kennedy were both drafted in the top 5 of their drafts by the Blues.
The Bad News: If Carlton win this game they lose the top spot in the 2007 AFL Draft. That probably is not something that anyone there cares about at the moment.
Hawthorn
They win if....Mitch Thorp plays, although they should get over the line if he isn't a late inclusion.
The Good News: They are third, due to a solid percentage, and finals are nearly guaranteed.
The Bad News: Croad won a game in the first quarter against Carlton last year, but he may not play.
Kangaroos v Adelaide
The Tip: Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Andrew McLeod
Chance For An Upset: A coin-flip game, with the Crows a very slight favourite. The Crows won in Queensland earlier in the season and can do it again. But Wells is back, the Kangaroos will have vocal support and Adelaide have some injury problems so the Kangaroos could get another win.
Adelaide
They win if....they have solved their forward problems, maybe McGregor is part of the solution.
The Good News: While many of their players have gone down with injuries, Ben Hudson is healthy this season and brings a lot of energy and plenty of hitouts.
The Bad News: They are only in the top 8 on percentage.
Kangaroos
They win if....Corey Jones continues his hot streak, he is a difficult player for teams to find the right player to stop him as he can play tall or small.
The Good News: Wells is back from his injury.
The Bad News: Teams might be paying more attention to McIntosh, Hale is again in the team to assist him.
Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
The Tip: Fremantle by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brett Peake
Chance For An Upset: People can't decide between these two sides, it is a neutral venue with two very even teams. Each team has a huge ruckman, an athletic back line and a powerful midfield. What the Bulldogs don't have is Pavlich, and that might get Fremantle the win.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they can cover for the loss of Cross and Griffen.
The Good News: They are going with youth and being rewarded, Tom Williams showed he could played last week and now Malcolm Lynch gets his chance.
The Bad News: Luke Darcy is commentating games for Channel 10, it seems a bit odd that he is barely in the Bulldogs' side and they allow him to have this outside distraction.
Fremantle
They win if....Headland gives them a secondary option for goals like he did last week.
The Good News: No players were suspended this week, and Crowley is back in the side after a short break.
The Bad News: If they lose this game, they will lose touch with the teams at the bottom of the top 8.
Geelong v Brisbane
The Tip: Geelong by 23 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brad Ottens
Chance For An Upset: A Brisbane win would be very unexpected, but this is a chance for Geelong to lose one of the games that they should win. Barassi says he doesn't trust Geelong, so if Brown can get the ball this could be a huge upset.
Geelong
They win if....N Ablett fires, he has been quiet in recent games.
The Good News: They have defeated nearly all the contenders.
The Bad News: The contract extensions are about to be handed out, some of the players who have been inconsistent for a lot of their careers may take the foot off the accelerator after getting a new deal.
Brisbane
They win if....Charman plays as a forward and the Cats don't have enough height to stop him and Brown, and Patfull too.
The Good News: Jonathan Brown will have a lot of local support for this match.
The Bad News: A couple more losses and a season that started off so well will be all but over.
Port Adelaide v Essendon
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Danyle Pearce
Chance For An Upset: Essendon may be the slight favourites here, but home ground advantage and a big milestone game might help the Power get the win.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Tredrea contributes, while goals would be good he could be just as effective taking Michael on long leads and marking on the wing.
The Good News: Westhoff is tall, thin but tall. He has kicked a lot of goals in his first two matches.
The Bad News: Their four consecutive losses have seen them drop out of the top 8.
Essendon
They win if....Hille again has a big game against one of the best ruckmen in the AFL.
The Good News: They know how to win close games.
The Bad News: Camporeale has thrown down the gauntlet to Robert Walls, that can't be good.
The tipping competitions want the picks to these games, so here are some wild guesses.
Richmond v Melbourne
The Tip: Melbourne by 44 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brock McLean
Game notes: A month ago it looked like the Tigers would have been favourites for this match, but Melbourne got some players back and have won a couple of games since then. The Demons did go through a patch of close losses before breaking through for their first win, the Tigers have been very close to defeating several teams, like Essendon and Fremantle, so their time to win must be close too.
Sydney v Collingwood
The Tip: Sydney by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Ryan O'Keefe
Game notes: The Magpies could be in trouble without O'Brien, Prestigiacomo and Clement. While the Swans will be without Kennelly, LRT could be available.
West Coast v St Kilda
The Tip: West Coast by 62 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Game notes: The Saints are not expected to have a chance, or to have Gehrig available. The Eagles might have Nicoski, Graham, Butler and even that guy who was suspended indefinitely for missing training.
carlton for me
Mac
carlton for me
Mac
That does certainly change things. The Hawthorn tip will remain here, although Carlton really should go into the game as favourites now.
If Ellis does come into the team, instead of Thorp, maybe that means Croad plays as a forward.