AFL Round 11 Preview
Essendon v West Coast
The Tip: West Coast by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Chance For An Upset: The Bombers do have the players to stop a lot of the Eagles' stars. Michael is a strong opponent to put on Lynch, and he will also have help from Fletcher, McPhee or Ryder. Peverill and Slattery may be given stopping jobs in the middle. Hille, and his backup Laycock, have the size to combat Cox and Seaby. There is a chance that jackets could be waved, if Stanton delivers and Lloyd breaks Glass.
Essendon
They win if....Hille leads all players for hitouts.
The Good News: They win under the roof.
The Bad News: Camporeale has been recalled, Carlton used to play him on Matera, but it has been a while since Peter played so it is hard to see which Eagle he will play on here. It is also difficult to figure out why Hislop or Dyson are not there instead of Camporeale.
West Coast
They win if....they have other avenues to goal if Lynch is denied. the Bombers have been able to contain J Brown and Hall so they have the tactics to stop Lynch.
The Good News: Priddis had nearly 40 possessions but the Eagles are so deep he may start in the bench.
The Bad News: They couldn't find a spot for Mackenzie, he would have had a good duel with Lucas.
Hawthorn v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Barry Hall
Chance For An Upset: Sydney are the outsider here, but they might have the dominant ruckman who will get them the win. That's Jolly, not their other ruckman the former Hawk.
Hawthorn
They win if....they again find an unexpected player to kick multiple goals, last week it was McGlynn and the week before it was Hodge. It might be Lewis this game.
The Good News: The two players who missed last round, Croad and Ladson, should be playing in this game.
The Bad News: Dixon is injured, he usually provides a veteran presence in the forward line.
Sydney
They win if....Hall plays a lot better than last week, and gives away fewer free kicks.
The Good News: Everitt gets the chance to play against his former team, it could be entertaining.
The Bad News: If the season ended right now they would miss the finals.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are the slight underdog, but the game is at their home so they have as much of a chance as the Bulldogs do.
Brisbane
They win if....they find the right player for Johnson if he is at full forward, Merrett can't stay with him.
The Good News: They missed out on seeing Akermanis during the NAB Cup, as he was injured, they get their chance now.
The Bad News: The Lions have made plenty of changes over the past month, injuries and poor form have unsettled their team.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they have a big player mark the ball in the forward line, this could be Darcy's last chance as Minson and McDougall combined for nearly 10 goals last week in the VFL.
The Good News: Murphy is back, if he and Hahn can play tall it might be enough for them to get the win.
The Bad News: If they lose this they will hit the halfway point of the season with more losses than wins.
Carlton v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brendon Lade
Chance For An Upset: This is a close call, with no real favourite. The Blues had the win last week, the Power are trying to recapture their early season form. The return of Brogan will mean Lade can also go forward, and he might be the difference with a few goals as he takes some of the pressure off Tredrea. Carlton may have two angry ruckmen, former Power player Ackland and former hurler O'hAilpin, while the Power only have one angry ruckman, former NBL basketballer Brogan, but that and home ground advantage may not be enough to get Carlton the win.
Carlton
They win if....Blackwell and Bentick get more playing time, they produce when on the field but need to be out there more.
The Good News: Saddington has been effective, he is getting spoils and helping out his teammates in a new-look defensive setup that is much shorter now as Waite has moved forward and O'hAilpin into the ruck.
The Bad News: It's another game with Mr Kennedy relegated to VFL duty, and he isn't even named as an emergency.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Wilson and Brogan add the required grunt to the team.
The Good News: The tribunal didn't hassle Westhoff as his charge was dismissed early, few players have kicked a goal and been reported in their first ever game.
The Bad News: Tredrea's lack of goals might be a concern.
Adelaide v Geelong
The Tip: Adelaide by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: Geelong are expected to keep rolling, so even playing at home the Crows are not favourites. The Crows can usually bounce back after a loss and they should have a plan to stop the Cats.
Adelaide
They win if....they tag Bartel and don't let him run around doing whatever he wants.
The Good News: Ricciuto and Johncock will be better this game.
The Bad News: Reilly is another player they have on the injured list.
Geelong
They win if....Varcoe, Stokes and the Abletts make it difficult for McLeod, Johncock and Mattner to launch the Crows into attack.
The Good News: Chapman was very good last week after missing several games.
The Bad News: When Geelong last played the Crows there the score was not good, Crows 147 and Cats 55.
St Kilda v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jess Sinclair
Chance For An Upset: A trip to Perth and a bad injury have people thinking the Kangaroos will struggle here. That may not be the case. The Saints have more than a few troubles of their own to contend with.
St Kilda
They win if....Koschitzke gets the better of McIntosh.
The Good News: Watts was a bright spot for their VFL side last week, if he plays he might give them an extra tall who can kick goals.
The Bad News: The injuries, the former coach, the local council, the players coming out of contract, a losing streak, they could be a tad distracted at the moment.
Kangaroos
They win if....they have someone who can keep up with Riewoldt, Petrie might have to do it as he is mobile and has height, Firrito might have better endurance and is another option.
The Good News: Smith and Archer are both healthy, they are at different parts of their careers but are both important to the back line for the Kangaroos.
The Bad News: Gibson is very likely going to miss the rest of the year, he has been very good this year with his ability to play on a variety of forwards.
Fremantle v Richmond
The Tip: Fremantle by 39 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Peter Bell
Chance For An Upset: Richmond got as close as they could without getting their first win last round, Fremantle are only three and a half wins ahead of them so the Tigers might think they are a chance.
Fremantle
They win if....they use their height and experience advantage in the ruck.
The Good News: They are playing Richmond, and in couple more weeks they play Carlton, the Dockers need to get some wins and games against teams under them on the ladder are very helpful.
The Bad News: A lot of their players are not confident when kicking for goal.
Richmond
They win if....Polak shows Fremantle why they previously used the 4th overall pick to draft him.
The Good News: Richmond didn't lose last week.
The Bad News: Too often their players look backwards before looking up the field for a player to pass to.
Melbourne v Collingwood
The Tip: Melbourne by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Neitz
Chance For An Upset: Prestigiacomo could be a big loss for Collingwood, and maybe that will give Melbourne a chance, it will all depend on Neitz.
Melbourne
They win if....they push extra talls forward, a forward line with Neitz, Robertson, Paul Johnson and Bate might be too much for the Magpies who are without Prestigiacomo and Clement.
The Good News: They got their season started last week.
The Bad News: The Demons are still second last, while for wins the Magpies are tied for second.
Collingwood
They win if....Cloke can again produce for a big game on the MCG.
The Good News: Their kicking for goal last week was exceptional.
The Bad News: Teams can lift for special games, Collingwood have done it previously and they have to be thinking that Melbourne can do it this week.
The Tip: West Coast by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Dean Cox
Chance For An Upset: The Bombers do have the players to stop a lot of the Eagles' stars. Michael is a strong opponent to put on Lynch, and he will also have help from Fletcher, McPhee or Ryder. Peverill and Slattery may be given stopping jobs in the middle. Hille, and his backup Laycock, have the size to combat Cox and Seaby. There is a chance that jackets could be waved, if Stanton delivers and Lloyd breaks Glass.
Essendon
They win if....Hille leads all players for hitouts.
The Good News: They win under the roof.
The Bad News: Camporeale has been recalled, Carlton used to play him on Matera, but it has been a while since Peter played so it is hard to see which Eagle he will play on here. It is also difficult to figure out why Hislop or Dyson are not there instead of Camporeale.
West Coast
They win if....they have other avenues to goal if Lynch is denied. the Bombers have been able to contain J Brown and Hall so they have the tactics to stop Lynch.
The Good News: Priddis had nearly 40 possessions but the Eagles are so deep he may start in the bench.
The Bad News: They couldn't find a spot for Mackenzie, he would have had a good duel with Lucas.
Hawthorn v Sydney
The Tip: Sydney by 18 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Barry Hall
Chance For An Upset: Sydney are the outsider here, but they might have the dominant ruckman who will get them the win. That's Jolly, not their other ruckman the former Hawk.
Hawthorn
They win if....they again find an unexpected player to kick multiple goals, last week it was McGlynn and the week before it was Hodge. It might be Lewis this game.
The Good News: The two players who missed last round, Croad and Ladson, should be playing in this game.
The Bad News: Dixon is injured, he usually provides a veteran presence in the forward line.
Sydney
They win if....Hall plays a lot better than last week, and gives away fewer free kicks.
The Good News: Everitt gets the chance to play against his former team, it could be entertaining.
The Bad News: If the season ended right now they would miss the finals.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
The Tip: Western Bulldogs by 33 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Scott West
Chance For An Upset: Brisbane are the slight underdog, but the game is at their home so they have as much of a chance as the Bulldogs do.
Brisbane
They win if....they find the right player for Johnson if he is at full forward, Merrett can't stay with him.
The Good News: They missed out on seeing Akermanis during the NAB Cup, as he was injured, they get their chance now.
The Bad News: The Lions have made plenty of changes over the past month, injuries and poor form have unsettled their team.
Western Bulldogs
They win if....they have a big player mark the ball in the forward line, this could be Darcy's last chance as Minson and McDougall combined for nearly 10 goals last week in the VFL.
The Good News: Murphy is back, if he and Hahn can play tall it might be enough for them to get the win.
The Bad News: If they lose this they will hit the halfway point of the season with more losses than wins.
Carlton v Port Adelaide
The Tip: Port Adelaide by 40 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Brendon Lade
Chance For An Upset: This is a close call, with no real favourite. The Blues had the win last week, the Power are trying to recapture their early season form. The return of Brogan will mean Lade can also go forward, and he might be the difference with a few goals as he takes some of the pressure off Tredrea. Carlton may have two angry ruckmen, former Power player Ackland and former hurler O'hAilpin, while the Power only have one angry ruckman, former NBL basketballer Brogan, but that and home ground advantage may not be enough to get Carlton the win.
Carlton
They win if....Blackwell and Bentick get more playing time, they produce when on the field but need to be out there more.
The Good News: Saddington has been effective, he is getting spoils and helping out his teammates in a new-look defensive setup that is much shorter now as Waite has moved forward and O'hAilpin into the ruck.
The Bad News: It's another game with Mr Kennedy relegated to VFL duty, and he isn't even named as an emergency.
Port Adelaide
They win if....Wilson and Brogan add the required grunt to the team.
The Good News: The tribunal didn't hassle Westhoff as his charge was dismissed early, few players have kicked a goal and been reported in their first ever game.
The Bad News: Tredrea's lack of goals might be a concern.
Adelaide v Geelong
The Tip: Adelaide by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Tyson Edwards
Chance For An Upset: Geelong are expected to keep rolling, so even playing at home the Crows are not favourites. The Crows can usually bounce back after a loss and they should have a plan to stop the Cats.
Adelaide
They win if....they tag Bartel and don't let him run around doing whatever he wants.
The Good News: Ricciuto and Johncock will be better this game.
The Bad News: Reilly is another player they have on the injured list.
Geelong
They win if....Varcoe, Stokes and the Abletts make it difficult for McLeod, Johncock and Mattner to launch the Crows into attack.
The Good News: Chapman was very good last week after missing several games.
The Bad News: When Geelong last played the Crows there the score was not good, Crows 147 and Cats 55.
St Kilda v Kangaroos
The Tip: Kangaroos by 11 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Jess Sinclair
Chance For An Upset: A trip to Perth and a bad injury have people thinking the Kangaroos will struggle here. That may not be the case. The Saints have more than a few troubles of their own to contend with.
St Kilda
They win if....Koschitzke gets the better of McIntosh.
The Good News: Watts was a bright spot for their VFL side last week, if he plays he might give them an extra tall who can kick goals.
The Bad News: The injuries, the former coach, the local council, the players coming out of contract, a losing streak, they could be a tad distracted at the moment.
Kangaroos
They win if....they have someone who can keep up with Riewoldt, Petrie might have to do it as he is mobile and has height, Firrito might have better endurance and is another option.
The Good News: Smith and Archer are both healthy, they are at different parts of their careers but are both important to the back line for the Kangaroos.
The Bad News: Gibson is very likely going to miss the rest of the year, he has been very good this year with his ability to play on a variety of forwards.
Fremantle v Richmond
The Tip: Fremantle by 39 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: Peter Bell
Chance For An Upset: Richmond got as close as they could without getting their first win last round, Fremantle are only three and a half wins ahead of them so the Tigers might think they are a chance.
Fremantle
They win if....they use their height and experience advantage in the ruck.
The Good News: They are playing Richmond, and in couple more weeks they play Carlton, the Dockers need to get some wins and games against teams under them on the ladder are very helpful.
The Bad News: A lot of their players are not confident when kicking for goal.
Richmond
They win if....Polak shows Fremantle why they previously used the 4th overall pick to draft him.
The Good News: Richmond didn't lose last week.
The Bad News: Too often their players look backwards before looking up the field for a player to pass to.
Melbourne v Collingwood
The Tip: Melbourne by 22 points
Best-On-Ground Guess: David Neitz
Chance For An Upset: Prestigiacomo could be a big loss for Collingwood, and maybe that will give Melbourne a chance, it will all depend on Neitz.
Melbourne
They win if....they push extra talls forward, a forward line with Neitz, Robertson, Paul Johnson and Bate might be too much for the Magpies who are without Prestigiacomo and Clement.
The Good News: They got their season started last week.
The Bad News: The Demons are still second last, while for wins the Magpies are tied for second.
Collingwood
They win if....Cloke can again produce for a big game on the MCG.
The Good News: Their kicking for goal last week was exceptional.
The Bad News: Teams can lift for special games, Collingwood have done it previously and they have to be thinking that Melbourne can do it this week.
