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AFL Insider - May 2008

The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Hawthorn

2 Jarryd Roughead

5 Lance Franklin

7 Jordan Lewis

21 Thomas Murphy

26 Matthew Little

53 Simon Taylor

From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "We're under no illusions of where we are as a footy club and what we've got to do and how we've got to rebuild it, and there's going to be a process. This draft is the start of that process and I'd say to our supporters, be patient, don't expect these kids to be superstars overnight. They'll be good developing players if we're all patient and we're all doing our jobs properly in developing them." - Gary Buckenara, Hawthorn recruiting manager


"This draft is the start", that has to be one of the better quotes from the 2004 draft. Hawthorn's current success is because of this draft and is also due to Hawthorn grabbing size and not following everyone else with their so-called "best available player" draft plan. The "best available tall" draft strategy is the way to assemble a team.

One thing will always stand out from the 2004 AFL draft results, Hawthorn took Roughead before Franklin. It doesn't matter now as they got both. Teams are lucky to get one quality key position forward in a draft, Hawthorn got two of them and both are very high quality.

Just as the Saints did with Riewoldt and Koschitzke, the Hawks went rebuilding by adding two of the biggest pieces they could find. Teams are built around key forwards and Hawthorn were able to grab Roughead and Franklin as Richmond and the Western Bulldogs let them go by.

Jordan Lewis is a strong midfielder that finals teams need. Simon Taylor has also been a success, he didn't do a lot for a few years but then grabbed his chance when Everitt left and Bailey was injured. Murphy is also a solid player, and if a spot opens up at either end of the field he can contribute.


Four of the players are regulars in the Hawthorn side, three of those could be called stars, and one of those is often called a superstar. A lot of the success that Hawthorn currently have is due to the names that they called out in the 2004 AFL draft.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Geelong
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Geelong

32. Brent Prismall

48. Nathan Ablett

62. Matthew Egan


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "With the preparation we'd done, we anticipated getting the players we got, really. When you're at pick 32 for the start, you've got to cross off a lot of names before you have a pick. We were really hopeful Brent Prismall would be around... and Matt's done really well in our VFL team for a couple of years and we haven't drafted a real defender for a little while now." - Stephen Wells, Geelong recruiting manager

Geelong decided to make a big change, and by sending a package of draft picks to Richmond they were ale to get Brad Ottens. Ottens and Nathan Ablett, a father/son pick, were part of the Cats' 2007 Grand Final winning team. Egan would have been in the side if he was fit, and Prismall wasn't too far from being selected to play too. The Cats used their draft picks very well.

At the moment, the Cats are not getting anything from the players they picked, not that it matters too much as the Cats are a very deep team. N Ablett is taking a break from football, Egan is injured and will miss the entire season and Prismall can’t get into the side and might need to look at Callan who went to a new team via trade and became a regular player with their new club. Ottens is about to return from injury after missing the opening rounds of 2008.

So many teams refuse to trade for that extra veteran that can take them to a premiership, the Cats showed that trading youth and early picks can bring in a cup. Without Ottens, they don’t win the 2007 Grand Final.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Fremantle
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Fremantle

59 Benet Copping

67 Troy Stribling

69 Daniel Haines


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "With Troy Simmonds moving on it's very important we got a quality key-position player into our squad ... Daniel (Haines) had an injury that's really come good. Everyone around the club will be really excited he's back on the list and he'll be trained up to play AFL senior footy. We had a number of specialists check out the state of his injury and it looks really positive for the future for him." - Chris Connolly, Fremantle coach

The Dockers traded away this draft to get Port Adelaide premiership player Josh Carr. It was a big price to pay, probably too much. A star key position player may be worth a bunch of picks, but a midfielder rarely is.

The Dockers do seem to do things differently to other clubs, and redrafting players they have delisted is one of them. They took Haines in a rookie draft a few years before this one, and then after delisting him thought they better bring him back.

The Dockers could have drafted Matthew Egan, Daniel Pratt and Chris Bryan. Those three were taken late in the 2004 draft but are still in the league.

Fremantle's drafting and trading in 2004 was followed by bad decisions in 2005 and 2006. At least the 2007 draft is looking a bit better for the purple people, with Rhys Palmer as well as Mayne and Hinkley.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Essendon
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Player Of The Week

Carlton went into their game against Fremantle with two young ruckmen, Kreuzer and Hampson, who were not going to have an easy time against the Dockers' mountain of a ruckman. The Blues needed someone in the middle who could read where Sandilands was hitting the ball and to work hard to get it, Adam Bentick was suited to that role.

Bentick helped set up Carlton's win with 20 possessions in the first half. He added another 11 possessions in the second half. Even though Fremantle had nearly twice as many hitouts as Carlton, no player out there that game had as many clearances as Bentick. Bentick is known for his tackling, and if he wasn't getting the ball out he was stopping the Docker who had it, Bentick had 5 tackles for the game.

Bentick is an often overlooked player on Carlton's list and opposition teams focus on Judd, Stevens and other Carlton midfielders but he is the player for Carlton that provides strength at the stoppages and he showed that against Fremantle in round 9.


Adam Bentick's profile at the Carlton site


Round 8, Player Of The Week
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Essendon

14 Angus Monfries

30 Andrew Lee

46 Henry Slattery

60 Paul Thomas


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "In Monfries, Slattery and Thomas we're got the run, and in Lee we've got the height/development player. Overall, we had spaced-out picks - we're very happy with what we got. Obviously along the way there are guys that we'd hoped would come through, but we're more than happy with what we got." - Adrian Dodoro, Essendon recruiting manager

Maybe calling them "spaced-out picks" wasn't the best choice of words. Although they just meant that because they didn't trade, they didn't have several picks in any one round. Not trading has been a problem for Essendon in quite a few of the resent offseasons, that has to change this year.

Monfries might become a midfielder that can kick goals, Slattery might be a midfielder who stops the other team kicking goals. Two useful players but not among the first picked each week at Essendon, so it was not a great draft.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Collingwood
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Collingwood

10 Chris Egan

23 Sean Rusling

39 Travis Cloke

55 Adam Iacobucci


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "We were lucky enough to pick Egan up at 10. We weren't quite sure how it would go but it pretty well went as expected and we were really happy that he was there. Our pick at 23 was a real toss-up. It's an unusual draft, very hard to predict it all. Father/son is debatable whether it's a good thing or not. We think it's a great thing when you can pick up Travis Cloke. I've said it 100 times this week, it's still the most intriguing part of footy, the whole recruiting/drafting thing. You've got to somehow predict what they're going to be - we think we've got a really good mix." - Neil Balme, general manager, Collingwood football operations

They were given Cloke, and also drafted an inconsistent player, an injury-prone forward and also a VFL player. Travis is the best of the three Clokes, and also the only one still at Collingwood. At pick 39 he was a draft steal, and has shown that he is a top 10-worthy talent. It was picks like this that had many teams wanting the father/son bidding process.

Rusling and Egan still have the potential to kick a lot of goals for Collingwood. Rusling can't stay healthy long enough to show the Magpies his quick leading and strong marking. Egan can do some good things, but he also makes a few too many mistakes and there is a lot of competition at Collingwood for the small and medium forwards.

Collingwood do have Cameron Wood now, after working a trade with Brisbane and Melbourne, but they also had the chance to pick him at number 10 in the 2004 draft.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Carlton
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Carlton

9 Jordan Russell

25 Adam Hartlett

41 Luke Blackwell

73 Chris Bryan

77 Anthony Raso


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "I suppose it's a cliche for recruiters to say after a draft that everything fell our way, but from what we targeted when we went into the day, it pretty much panned out OK. We wanted a good midfielder, a key-position player, we wanted a ruckman with a bit of experience, and our last pick was a young fellow who probably won't be at the club at all next year ... he'll have school commitments all year, but he's one for the future." - Wayne Hughes, Carlton recruiting manager

The Blues got close to nothing from this draft. While they can get good players when given the top overall pick, they do waste a lot of other top 10 picks.

Raso and Bryan are long gone, but that late in the draft they were actually good choices. Blackwell, who can't get a game at the moment, was a solid move and brought in some father-son tradition. There was no bidding system in those days, and giving up pick 41 wasn't a problem as Blackwell was worth that. Hartlett should be doing a lot more than he is, but injuries and a poor game-plan there do limit his chances, even when he is healthy enough to play they rarely kick it in his direction. Russell is someone that Carlton keep playing but he has yet to deliver. Teams don't normally draft poorly-skilled taggers in the top 10, but right now that is what Russell is.

There was quality all the way through the draft, some examples of late steals were Chris Knights at pick 56 and Daniel Pratt at pick 74, but Carlton missed out.

Carlton could have drafted Cain Ackland in this draft, he went to the Saints at pick 33. Ackland is now at Carlton after they used a preseason choice to acquire him a couple of years ago.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Brisbane


For AFL news and fantasy footy information, go to www.allfooty.info
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Brisbane

18 Cameron Wood

27 Pat Garner

45 Justin Sherman

50 Jayden Attard

64 Luke Forsyth


From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "It goes without saying, every club's happy with the mix of players they get. I suppose our plans got thrown out a little bit when Cameron Wood was still there at 18. He did shock us. We were genuinely surprised he was there and at the end of the day he was too good to go past. So that threw us out and we had to adjust along the way, but we're still really happy." - Kinnear Beatson, Brisbane recruiting manager

It was a solid draft by Brisbane, although only one player remains on their senior list from this draft. Sherman is a versatile player who has been a bit up and down in his form but has now become a regular contributor for the Lions.

The Wood pick was great, but so was the Leuenberger pick a few years later. So with Leuenberger there, as well as Charman and Mitch Clark, they traded away Wood and brought in Travis Johnstone.

Garner is still around, but on Brisbane's rookie list. Attard is a St Kilda rookie.


The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Adelaide
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Player Of The Week

Plenty of players excelled on the weekend, and maybe The Birdman wasn't going up against the greatest opposition but his performance should still be noted.

The forward line was supposed to be a problem for the Crows, but with Tippett, The Porpoise, Simon Goodwin and The Birdman they are kicking winning scores. Against Melbourne, The Birdman kicked 5 goals and handed a few more to his teammates. He also had 11 marks, 17 kicks, 5 handballs and 3 tackles.

A mark of the year contender also had some fans out of their seats, it should have been all the fans but there were a few lazy ones in the stands. With around five minutes to go, and the game under control, Adelaide sent The Birdman to the bench to rest in preparation for next week which did rob him of an opportunity to kick another goal or two.


Brett Burton's profile at the Adelaide site


Round 7, Player Of The Week
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The Craziness Of The 2004 AFL Draft - Adelaide

Time to look at the picks from the 2004 AFL draft. Richmond had 5 picks in the top 20 but didn't make the most of that opportunity. Geelong traded away their top pick and that would bring them a premiership a few years later, Sydney also traded their first rounder for an important premiership player. Fremantle and St Kilda wasted their time showing up to the draft while Hawthorn are famous because of what they did with their choices in the 2004 AFL draft. Once again, The Age newspaper provides some quotes from the teams on draft day.


8 John Meesen

24 Nathan van Berlo

28 Chad Gibson

40 Ivan Maric

56 Chris Knights

From The Age: Who your team picked
THE CLUB SAYS "We got a really good surprise right at the start with John Meesen. We rated him as our first preference as a ruckman and even though he was an interstate kid, that wasn't an issue for us. To get him there, there were smiles all around. We got our ruckmen, our midfielder, our key-position player, and we rated Chris Knights in our top 20. We weren't going to use pick 56, but it was a bit like when we got Graham Johncock late. All up, we're happy. We covered all our areas." - James Fantasia, Adelaide recruiting manager

Their best selection was their last one, Knights. They also got a lot more from the ruckman taken at pick 40 than the one at pick 8. Comparing Knights to the draft steal that Graham Johncock was made sense, and has been proven with Knights' great play. Calling Meesen "a really good surprise" wasn't something that was backed up by his play. They were able to move Meesen for a low draft pick, but looking back they will acknowledge that they should have taken local player Cameron Wood.

Knights and van Berlo are part of the Crows' best side so that makes this draft a success for them. Maric is a solid backup ruckman, and has been one of the healthier bigs they have had there in recent years.
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The Teams: Victoria v Dream Team

Victoria

FB: C.Brown, Scarlett, Milburn
HB: Shaw, Croad, Waite
C: Harvey, Mitchell, Goodes
HF: O'Keefe, J.Brown, Murphy
FF: S.Johnson, Fevola, Bradshaw
Foll: Simmonds, Bartel, Judd

bench: Fraser, Power, Chapman, Kelly, Foley, Pendlebury, J.Selwood

emergency: Roughead, Sewell


Dream Team

FB: Johncock, Rutten, Bolton
HB: McLeod, Pavlich, Cooney
C: Richardson, Kerr, S.Burgoyne
HF: Goodwin, Mooney, D.Motlop
FF: Burton, Franklin, Davis
Foll: Cox, P.Burgoyne, K.Cornes

bench: Bock, Charman, Corey, Stokes, Kirk, Griffen, Glass

emergency: Bassett, Cross, Enright


The tip: Dream Team by 33 points

Best player: Dean Cox
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Early Season Club Report Card

Looking at the teams, and giving a grade based on what was expected from them this season and what they have produced so far in the first 7 rounds. The teams are listed in their current ladder positions.

1 Geelong B plus
Were expected to win all their games in the early rounds, but have not found their best form yet, that should happen when Ottens returns.

2 Hawthorn A
They were expected to be the second best team this season, and have lived up to that.

3 Bulldogs A plus
Minson and Welsh up forward have added height, while their younger players have also improved the team.

4 Adelaide A
Injuries to their ruckman and other important players have not held them back.

5 St Kilda B
They made some trades to bring in veterans to get to a Grand Final, the jury is still out on those moves as well as what the coach is trying to do.

6 Sydney B plus
Some injuries and a suspension have certainly kept the Swans from putting their best side on the field.

7 Kangaroos B
A bit of an up and down start to season 2008, as long as they make the top 8 the season will be considered a success for them.

8 Collingwood C plus
They were expected to replicate last season's success, or even improve on it a bit, but have lost a couple of games this season that they would have thought would be certain wins.


9 Port Adelaide C
Not the best start to a season from a team that was just in a Grand Final, although things are going much better now than they were a few weeks ago.

10 Brisbane B
Brown and Bradshaw were expected to get them back into the finals, so far Bradshaw is doing his part but Brown has been out of form, or injured.

11 Carlton B plus
They have been winning a few games, Judd and Kreuzer have been great acquisitions for them, they are on the way up but still have a long way to go.

12 Richmond B plus
They are trying some new ideas and some of them have been successful.

13 Essendon C
The new coach is bringing in a new system, so they are going through an adjustment phase, add to that some injuries to their better players and they are struggling right now.

14 Fremantle D
They finished last year with some optimism for season 2008, but that has disappeared now.

15 West Coast D
It did seem that the Eagles had plenty of depth to cover the players who left, that was not the case.

16 Melbourne C
Not a lot was expected from them this year, but they are showing improvement as the season progresses.
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Player Of The Week

It was a good round for the smaller forwards of the AFL. Porplyzia, Milne and Wonaeamirri all performed. An even better player was Daniel Motlop, he was at his freakish best.

Motlop can play tall and short, taking a high mark or tackling an opponent are both skills in his repertoire. He had 7 marks in this game and also had 5 tackles. What he is best known for is kicking goals, especially from difficult angles, and he was accurate once again with 7 goals and only 2 behinds.

He may not be the most consistent player, but Daniel Motlop can win a game with a display of brilliance. He did have a bit of help from his teammates in this game as the Power defeated the Bombers but Motlop turned what could have been a close game into a demolition.


Daniel Motlop's profile at the Port Adelaide site


Round 6, Player Of The Week
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Helping The Melbourne Football Club Week: Melbourne Land A Win, Just Needed Some Bate

Melbourne have shown they do have a future, as Wonaeamirri, Bate and many other youngsters contributed to the big comeback win over Fremantle. There is also hope for a few more wins this season as veterans like Bruce and White can overcome the best in the league at their position.

From the Melbourne site: Record comeback breaks Dees' duck

MELBOURNE has pulled off the greatest comeback in its 150-year history with a stunning come-from-behind victory over Fremantle at the MCG on Sunday.

Sparked by phenomenal final quarters by Austin Wonaeamirri, Russell Roberston and Aaron Davey, the Demons won their first match of the season, 17.17 (119) to 15.23 (113).


From The Age: Blessed Demon victory

FEWER than 20,000 fans were there, and those who were not will today be annoyed with themselves. Some will tell you they were there, regardless. But those who did attend will savour a game like few others.

Ryan Crowley choked on tears wondering how his club could be such a self-parody. Even by Fremantle standards this was awful — the greatest turnaround loss in the club's history.


From the Herald Sun: Fightback will change everything, says McNamee

"We've won from 50 points down at halftime. That's a lot more than winning one game," McNamee said.

"Even though we are still sitting at the bottom of the ladder, we have just had a win that's really quite a turning point in the season.


That is the end of the, extended, week about the Melbourne Football Club. While they do get to celebrate a win for a couple of weeks, there is still a lot of work for them to do as they plan for the future and the AFL drafts.
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Helping The Melbourne Football Club Week: The Chances Of Winning

Things will improve next year, but there is also 2008 to get through too. Here are the percentage chances of Melbourne winning their remaining games this season.


Round 7
49%
Melbourne vs. Fremantle MCG


Round 8
10%
Adelaide vs. Melbourne AAMI Stadium


Round 9
5%
Melbourne vs. Hawthorn MCG


Round 10
20%
St. Kilda vs. Melbourne Telstra Dome


Round 11
33%
Melbourne vs. Collingwood MCG


Round 12
40%
Richmond vs. Melbourne Telstra Dome


Round 13
3%
Melbourne vs. Sydney Manuka Oval


Round 14
20%
Melbourne vs. Brisbane MCG


Round 15
25%
Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Telstra Dome


Round 16
10%
Fremantle vs. Melbourne Subiaco


Round 17
25%
Melbourne vs. Kangaroos MCG


Round 18
25%
Essendon vs. Melbourne MCG


Round 19
1.50%
Melbourne vs. Geelong MCG


Round 20
15%
Melbourne vs. West Coast MCG


Round 21
5%
Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne AAMI Stadium


Round 22
33%
Melbourne vs. Richmond MCG


The chances of winning the premiership this season, probably 0.000001%. The chances of Melbourne winning the premiership in 2012, looking a lot better at maybe 20%, assuming they load up with talent from very high draft picks over the next couple of seasons. What Hawthorn are doing at the moment, that is what Melbourne should be doing by 2012.
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Helping The Melbourne Football Club Week: Recent Drafting Results

One problem the Melbourne Football Club had after getting to their last Grand Final was that their spot on the ladder fluctuated so much in recent years. In the finals one year, close to the bottom the next. The best Victorian team one year, fighting for the wooden spoon the next. In the trade periods they could never figure out if they were a buyer or a seller, whether they needed to blow it all up to start over or if they needed to add a few players for a run at the premiership.

Except for 2003, which was a problem draft for Melbourne, they have not been among the highest picks and best prospects until last season. For a team to rebuild effectively, they need to acquire a future core with draft picks and trades over two or three seasons. Right now, Melbourne are in year 1 of that process.

The 2008 AFL draft should be a day of great success for the Demons, but as you can see below the reason they are in their current predicament is that they missed with a lot of their draft picks in the past. Here are their recent draft picks and an occasional mention of a better player that was still available when Melbourne selected.


2000

16 Scott Thompson

62 Daniel Breese
(Could have been Graham Johncock)

73 Ross Funcke

80 Mitchell Craig



2001

9 Luke Molan
(Could have been Nick Dal Santo)

25 Steven Armstrong

26 Aaron Rogers
(Could have been Sam Mitchell)

55 Brad Miller
(Could have been Dane Swan)



2002

14 Daniel Bell
(Could have been Troy Selwood)

15 Nicholas Smith
(Could have been Adam Selwood)

26 Jared Rivers

39 Gary Moorcroft
(Could have been Tim Boyle)

54 Cameron Hunter
(Could have been Nick Malceski)

66 Ryan Ferguson
(Could have been Brad Fisher)



2003

3 Colin Sylvia
(Could have been Beau Waters)

5 Brock McLean

36 Christopher Johnson



2004

13 Matthew Bate

15 Lynden Dunn
(Could have been Cameron Wood)

43 Michael Newton



2005

12 Nathan Jones

53 Simon Buckley

60 Clint Bartram

68 Heath Neville



2006

12 James Frawley
(Could have been Jack Riewoldt)

30 Ricky Petterd

46 Colin Garland

62 Isaac Weetra
(Could have been Tyson Goldsack)



2007

4 Cale Morton

14 Jack Grimes

21 Addam Maric

53 Kyle Cheney

66 Tom McNamara



2008 ?

1 Key Position Player

17 Fast Medium-sized Midfielder

18 Ruckman

34 Key Position Player

50 Key Position Player

66 Fast Small Forward
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